FX spot fwds and vol calls

Discussion in 'Journals' started by atticus, Jul 30, 2012.

  1. As the title suggests, this will be an open forum to discuss trade entries and exits. Any format you like. Post stops, targets, logic... or don't. While the thread is open to all -- no BS please. We will report trolling posts as often as need be.

    I trade the occasional spot and fwd position, but most of my discretionary positions are on the vol-side. As such, much of what I post will be vanilla listed (ETF); as well as vanilla and exotics, OTC. Mostly touches, barriers and digitals (in order of freq).

    Feel free to post any trade related to FX; systematic, discretionary, technical, fundamental.
  2. Long the interbank EURGBP 1W 7670/7950 double no touch from 81/100 expires on NY Fix. I prefer to use single touch markets and a spot hedge, but went with the DNT.

    Good vol sale into ECB. Bloomberg VV model price in R/T. Paid a few bp over:

  3. I normally stick to single-touches as I solve for the arithmetic hedge resulting in no more than a 50% loss of the debit should the barrier be touched. The DNT's are more "compact" but more difficult to hedge (inversion) so I trade them typically 1/2 size than when trading singles hedged with spot.

    I trade a lot of fwd-starts as well, but the opps are few and far between since the Draghi comments.
  4. contra


    wow nice... that's the big boy stuff. next level...

    I trade on Oanda, still learning, so not much I can do there. They have the boxes, maybe I can practice with fwd touches. I can definitely learn from this.

    I'll mostly stick to spot directional swings, or try.

    let's get it rolling...

    I'm looking for a short AUD/USD... I hate to short this pair, perhaps EUR/AUD long might be better with no dollar exposure, but the Nikkei is down off the bat, indices look a little short term toppy, and I feel we can use a retrace after this 0500 barrier approach. Not expecting too much yet, but I doubt asia will bring it much higher here.

    short AUD/USD 0497, stop 0538, target 0420-0400 area.

    some aussie data at 9:30 which I dont like... i guess we can call this a punt to kick it off lol.

    also eyeing USD/CAD here...
  5. I'm looking for a touch of 1370 ES tomorrow which should take 50-60 pips out of AUDUSD. I'll PM some info on fwd starts.
  6. contra


    good to hear, that's exactly what I was looking for it to drop back to.

    I dont have a good feed for ES, but on SPX it should line up around there.
  7. contra


    long USD/CAD 1.0008, stop 9965... not sure on target yet, 0100 looks ok for now...
  8. You won't be stopped tomorrow. One of the best "risk off" longs.
  9. contra


    kick ass!

    That aussie data popped AUD/USD... i was well aware that could happen for these stops above 0500. Hopefully this is TP zone and weak longs hook me up if/when it turns and takes out the session lows. Also hoping 0530 channel is what caps it... getting close.

    I wouldn't be buying here in Asia atleast...
  10. The Aussie session close will be critical for direction to the ECB. EURAUD is not breaking lower. Should see a steep sale under 1.05.
    #10     Jul 30, 2012