Volatility is markedly decreasing in most major pairs. I am not sure what it takes other than some major unexpected headlines to motivate traders to put on positions in size prior to the EU summit. I myself do not expect much to come out of it, current positions Germany vs. rest of Europe are set and made known and I do not see how consensus can build in this way. Longer term I still believe that those with money will prevail which is Germany in this case. Those in distress need to bow out and lower their expectations and submit to more painful restructurings, I am afraid this fact has not fully set in in France and Italy. It makes zero sense to predict where rates are gonna be, there are just too many moving parts: US elections, US economic sustainability and money printing, opaque Chinese data. If Iran or forces in North Korea or in the middle east want to flex their muscles then now is probably an idea time. Back to business: The dollar held onto its current levels despite the market having attempted to sell it for the third time below where I see it now. Looks like the edge is on the side of risk-off if I have to take sides. Thus I look for selling opportunities in the dollar crosses. The yen looks a bit stronger here; are players challenging BOJ to do their intervention thing once again all alone? We are not far from 78-79 levels where I see Japanese politicians freaking and starting to call up BOJ non-stop pleading for intervention.
I just shorted eur, cable, and aussie. Since I traded and price has moved already a bit I attach a screenshot. Apologies. Stops as follows: Eur 1.2510 Gbp 1.5642 Aud 1.0072
Got stopped out in Eur at 1.2510 earlier for -17pip loss. I take profit in Cable at 1.5537 for +94 pips Total Stats: Total Trades 15 Number Profitable Trades 6 Number Unprofitable Trades 9 Total Performance (pips) 345 Average PnL of Profitable Trade (pips) 97.5 Average PnL of Unprofitable Trade (pips) -26.7 Average PnL per Trade Total (pips) 23.00
I decided to discontinue this thread and declare this experiment a failure. Not my own discretionary trading but posting trades on a public board for the following reasons: * lack of response. I have not seen a single post by someone else who deemed it worthwhile to contribute. Reflecting on myself this may be because my writing style was too boring. On the other side it could be that most at ET are just after sensationalism, if I blew out big time I am sure I had garnered more responses. * I do not find the time to post my trades in real-time, its just not feasible. I found it majorly distracts me from my positions and it somewhat influences me in not trading in the way I would without posting. I sometimes take off positions minutes after initiating trades because I do not feel right about it due to subsequent price action and posting such would end up in significant more work on my end which I am not willing to put in due to no derived benefit. It was an experiment, I never posted my trades on public boards before because I did not see a reason to prove anything to others than myself. I posted trades here for the first time for myself but found it does not benefit myself. Thus my decision to discontinue. I will continue to add value mostly on technical threads (programming related, technology related threads) but will not post trades anymore.
AmazingIndustry, I have been an avid follower, though refrained from commenting. Actually, I liked your style and I was hoping you would continue this experiment for at least a year. Even though I do understand that real time posting can be a bit tedious. Btw, I sent you a PM few days ago.
Thanks for the kind words and I appreciate, however, posting trades as close to the time they were filled just does not work for me and I do not see how posting trades after prices moved already makes any sense at all. Thus my decision to not post trades anymore. I will continue to submit thoughts and ideas on markets from time to time thought. Btw, I got your pm but could not comment because I do not like to discuss my algorithmic trading here nor anywhere else publicly in light of the fact that I am not just holding myself accountable to my own investments but others' as well. Am happy to talk about individual pieces of technology but not my setup as fund or overall trading platform architecture or testing and profiling environment.
A quick thought after EUR and other risk currencies spiked just now in response to...whoever knows...nobody right now knows what has actually been agreed on and what now, there might be some leaks coming out of closed-door-discussions but I actually bet 35pips (stop at 1.2630) against this because I just cannot believe Germany will allow any sort of debt mutualization. So, just sold EUR in size at current 1.2595 levels. Glad I was flat prior to the spikes but I am more than happy to take this 35pip risk.
out at 1.26. Slightly up week thanks to the rather larger sell off in cable and profit taking just 20 pips away from its low yesterday. The past two weeks have been very meager performance wise, 2nd time these past two weeks that I read the perception of the market completely wrong. I did not expect Germany to bow out of this so quickly and with so little resistance. A lot of wasted opportunities by not jumping on-board the long side. Oh well it will get more interesting if the 1.2760 level is broken in terms of longer trend reversion. I need to see how markets will digest all this over the weekend to decide whether to still err on the short side towards the start of next week. For now the damage is done in terms of opportunity cost and I retreat to enjoy my weekend, TGIF.