FX intervention 30/09

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by m22au, Sep 30, 2003.

  1. m22au


    Large gains by the US Dollar after 10am ET do smell of intervention, but I find that hard to believe given the current policy of "low rates for a considerable period".

    Despite the gains by the US Dollar, bonds haven't sold off.

    Anyone care to share their thoughts?
  2. msfe


    gains by the US Dollar ?

    Euro and Swiss Francs are sharply up ...
  3. It seems more like a technical move triggered by a large order setting off a cascade of trailing stops and stop-loss orders in multiple markets simultaneously. A similar thing happened in early January.
  4. m22au


    msfe: large gains by the US Dollar since 10am ET ...

    I ignored the obvious - that European central banks and/or the Fed would intervene on the BOJ's behalf. I find that strange - on one hand the Fed is looking to engineer a weak US Dollar yet on the other it helps out the BOJ by selling Yen.
  5. Yes they are still sharply up, but also SHARLPY OFF their highs. Have you looked at an intra-day chart? While you are at it, look at a chart of the Yen
  6. "Lord, make me chaste, but not yet" --St. Augustine

    The US may want a weaker dollar, but it's not in any sovereign's best interest for the dollar to fall off a cliff. It's been 'managed down' for a long time now.

    Trying to stave off Soros' 'reflexivity' is funny, in an existential sense. Hard to get a weaker dollar without impeding foreign capital inflows-- that kind of thing can get out of hand quickly.

  7. m22au


    Thanks for your ideas Laz, but I must admit that I didn't understand

    "Trying to stave off Soros' 'reflexivity' is funny, in an existential sense. "

  8. m22au


  9. m22au


    I'm not sure if that was directed at me ..... but for the record I am a US Dollar bear

    #10     Sep 30, 2003