I am a couple of days late here with this short. I haven't been paying attention recently because I have been focusing on daytrading. This is a problem with daytrading I think and I may just revert back totally to the swing and position trading with no charts less than 60 minute, so that I can keep focus on more markets and not miss signals. What it is, is being too active. Less is more in futures and I need to revisit that concept even with the experience that I have. Attached is a chart of a classic triple bearish divergence on the Aussie that clearly shows that the market should have been shorted on the close Wed 01032007 at .7907. I am two days late here. I can't have that happen ever again. Feel free to comment on the chart.
Just wondering, you attempted to buy the yen a couple times last month if I recall correctly -- why not now when it's finally showing relative strength? Would also be a good complement ("hedge" is such a dirty word around here) for your other shorts. ps- you don't need to thank me for the questions, makes you sound like big gay al from south park.
It certainly showed strength on hourly charts Fri didn't it? I want to go long here, but I need to see a more clear picture in the chart. Attached is my daily chart where it's just not clear to me yet. I am just being cautious. I did manage to pick up 40 pips on the short side Wed using the hourly chart but did not trade the long side Fri. I can see a double bottom with strengthening RSI, but I am not certain yet. I may take your suggestion with a stop below the potential double bottom, although I would rather buy on a stop above the reaction high on the chart. Let me give it some more thought.
The Yen chart that I just posted was the continuous chart. Attached here is the March Contract which has quite a different look to it with failure swings included. I think that your suggestion has merit and I will most likely buy on Sunday night and keep a stop below the low on the daily. The only issue is the large size of the Histogram trough which generally portends more weakness. I will need to be very careful here. I will pay special attention to the hourly chart for entry and exit until the daily shapes up a bit. Comments welcome
I just meant around these parts (mostly among those trading retail spot), where some believe being long EUR/USD in one account and short EUR/USD in another provides some kind of advantage . . .
Well don't get me wrong, I am neither long or short yen as well, and don't really pay attention to technicals as much. But betting on further yen strength would for me translate into a bet on further depreciation of the commodity bloc, among other things. It would fit well with your other long dollar plays though.
What if you are bullish long term, but still want to trade short-term against your long-term position?
Sure, then it's a separate trade. I would not, for example, be more willing to short something just because you're already long in a longer-term time frame, but just think of things completely independently aka nothing to do with a "hedge".