No matter how you look at the GECM6 contract , whether it is on a daily chart or a daily continuation chart, it certainly shows support at the 20 day MA. This is more so on the continuation chart. I think a significant break down of the 20 day MA would lend itself to lower prices. However, there is a bull case to be made here. ie Higher peaks in both RSI and MACD Histogram --this usually favors higher prices. Higher lows in RSI also-- The RSI higher lows could be negated with a significant downturn this afternoon, so that is not totally confirmed yet. Also, depending on what happens later today, the 20 day MA will have been tested thrice. Bottom line is that I believe there is a slightly higher probability of upside potential but this would involve a closing at the high end of today's range. On an intraday basis, we had a nice bullish divergence with respect to both RSI and MACD Histogram around midnight last night. This was seen on both the `15 minute chart and then later on the 60 minute chart. Then again we had a divergence--this time a bearish one , using 12 and 15 minute charts just prior to 9 AM EST this morning. On the 12 minute chart , it was particularly strong (I like the 12 since it is 1/5th of an hour and 5 to 1 is a good rule of thumb when comparing time frames). Today would have been a great day for intraday if you could stay awake during the night. Right now, we have a double RSI top on the 12 minute chart, but it's too close to the FED announcements. Again, I pay no attention to news, but I still think that it's good if you know it is coming to just stay out initially.
Well we are not going to close at the high range of the bar today and that was the wild card. This kind of doji that appears today is the kind that I love to sell. The negative for this short is twofold--We are right at the 20 day again on continuation charts and also we haven't broken the 3 or 4 day mini trendline that exists there. I think I will look to sell when those two are broken. I would have prefered this kind of doji to be coming back in to the BB channel from the outside and the I would sell without question. Certainly is a possible head and shoulders with RSI as well. If entering long, I will look for bullish divergence on hourly and short term charts. I may at that time then look for a bearish divergence to enter short.
Hello, I called in a short for 2 units at 1.2140 and 1.2135 about 30 minutes before the FOMC meeting. I place a very tight stop. It seems that thinsg worked out for me. This was a purely new driven trade. However, I do like the way things are shaping up on teh daily charts as well. Regards Steve
It certainly appears that the outside day down in GJYM6 portends lower prices ahead. We are right at the 20 day MA on continuation charts and as usual this is the area that we need to break though to get down to 84 and below. There is a class B Histogram divergence drawn from the peaks of 03/01 and 03/20. In addition MACD is ready to cross the signal line and is above the zero line. I usually like to catch that before it happens, but it's ok the way it is. RSI has made a lower peak with the action of the last couple of days as well. I am shorting here with a stop above 87.00. I'm short at 85.78 one unit
How much downside is there left in the Canadian/USD and the Aussie/USD futures? Does anyone have an opinion?
I lowered stop to 1.2080. I am not too confident that it will continue down that dramaticaly. Therefore, I wanted to lock in some profits. Regards, Steve
I don't have a GEC trade on right now, but I am short the GJY. What chart did you enter your short GEC on?
I entered that trade on the 15 minute chart. I was watching the action and It looked like a great opportunity heading into teh news with minimal risk. I was also really encouraged by the great consumer confidence numbers this AM. This was a combo news play and chart pattern of a H&S on the minute chart at about FOMC announcement time. Go back and look at the H&S on the 15 minute chart. Regards Steve