FX forecasting and trading?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by mizhael, Aug 5, 2009.

  1. Hi all,

    Could anybody give me some good pointers about forecasting, predicting and trading FX? I am thinking of using some data-mining methods to predict the FX movement... Could anybody point me to some success stories?

    Thanks a lot!
  2. sakhter


    You should look into financial econometrics.. time-series analysis, GARCH, decomposition, regression, etc.
  3. Forex


    This is extremely difficult thing to do, all the variables are changing all the time.

    Good luck.

  4. Been using the principle of cyclical analysis, a study of the magnitude-duration-fluctuation series of price motion. You want to know more, just ASK.
  5. Tell me more :)
  6. May I refer you back to my forecast on EURUSD and GBPUSD yesterday and see where the prices are this morning, talking about US Pacific time.
  7. Sure, but are you going to explain?
  8. We have developed a trading approach (system) that we have been applying for almost 30 years. It is mechanical in nature. Based on the phenomenon of CYCLICALITY and how they relate to currency price movements.

    As the adage goes, “For everything there is a season and a time for every purpose under heaven.” The universe and the solar system moves and rotates based upon the principles of cyclicality. The earth revolves around the sun and while it’s doing that rotates on its axis bringing altogether the four weather seasons where sowing and reaping comes into play. Planets within our solar system each rotate along a given path. The sun would rise from the east and dips on the western horizon bringing to a close what we call a “day” and as surely as sunset occurs, it rises once again to give light to all living things. The hydro cycle is likewise a display of wonder of wonders---as rain falls, the rivers from the mountain collects them and runs them out onto the sea. From there, through the process of condensation, is taken back to the atmosphere into a rain cloud and thereafter repeats the same cycle all over again. J. M. Hurst, who authored books on Cycles, mentioned that for every sixteen hours sleep is required; the ebbing and rising of the tide is cyclical in nature as well. There is even a calendar that precisely predicts the time for the high tide as well as the low tide on each given day. There are also cycles in business which dictate the peaks and bottoms of the economy.

    Cycles do exist and have significance. We have to accept and understand this. The principle behind this phenomenon is where we base our system of trading. The majority of human decision making process is hinged on this seemingly esoteric yet rather simple and easy to understand principle --- if one will have an open mind.

    In our study and application for trading, we have four elements upon which our trading system is built. These are the knowledge, correct application and understanding of the principles of MAGNITUDE, DURATION, FLUCTUATION and VARIATION.
    Email me if you want more.