A consistently-profitable trading system needn't be brilliant. It need only be consistently profitable. And that takes some work. But few people want to do the work. So the few make money while the rest don't. The path has been laid, lit, paved with flagstones and littered with breadcrumbs. But most prefer to wander off into the weeds anyway, following the pretty colors. That is not the problem nor the responsibility of those who've done the work.
Accuracy implies a high degree of certainty. You ought to read NoDoji's post above: Looking for certainty in the market is the road to frustration and failure, imo (and the opinion of many respectable others). Again, from NoDoji's post just a few above your own: I would not have believed it myself starting out, but I have witnessed enough train wrecks and wheel spinners here at ET to see that without the proper attitude toward this game - which is, to me, essentially the combined attitude of an athlete and a professional gambler - perhaps a sports betting athlete - your results will likely disappoint yourself. You're new. My advice to you would be not to ignore @NoDoji and @dbphoenix. Others will warn you away from what they have to say. I would warn you away from those who warn you away from NoDoji and DbPhoenix. I would also sugest you add @monoid and @KDASFTG to your follows. Nearly everyone else here at ET thinks like you do right now, and you will not succeed in this game thinking like you do.
@k p: You don't need to see charts of trades to believe them. Ask any trader if they have losing trades and everyone will say "yes". I will give you some examples from last couple of weeks to answer your specific concerns (but without charts ). (1) Apr 30: took 4 trades, was stopped out on all 4 trades! Granted, this has not happened to me in a long time, but sh$t does happen (this example covers your "even doesn't make up for it, and they finish down for the day." part). (2) May 12: took 4 trades; first 2 lost money, third was a scratch, and fourth made money. The winner covered the losses and more (this example covers your "others put on trades too that don't work, and that perhaps right after 2 or 3 losses in a row, they still put on the next trade that makes up for it"). Hope this helps. Regards, Monoid.
KP Thought about you yesterday evening – I want to present something to see if it resonates Asking whether we trade…, have losing trades / days..., whatever Is not so much seeking actual validation of whether we do…, or don’t I think.., and please correct me if I’m wrong here…. You’re beginning to have thoughts / ideas about trading – that are so far out of the norm of conventional thinking…, that absolutely fly in the face of what is historically taught / ingrained within us – that these new thoughts (concepts) seem utterly impossible For instance (and specific to trading…, that to the civilian world are counterintuitive) To ultimately win – be a good loser To succeed – do not focus on winning or losing – rather stick to a routine We don’t need to know to succeed No one knows I must embrace the very thing that can ruin me (uncertainty and risk) Most everything I’ve work my butt off to learn / master..., my entire life to this point – is of no use I think – you are not looking to others for a validation of what we can / cannot do per se Rather you’re seeking validation (vetting out) that these new thoughts you’re experiencing are actually legit After all…, how can they possibly be – they are the antithesis of everything we’ve been raised to believe May be that I am correct..., then again.., may be that I am wrong - it for you to say Just a little sumthin.., sumthin to ponder RN
You know RN... I think you might be absolutely right here, like dead on right. This one in particular is very important, especially directly within the framework of a trading plan. In my PMs with another member who is truly an inspiration because of all the work he is doing, the idea of stops is pivotal. Using the idea of the danger point from Wyckoff, the stop must absolutely lie outside the danger point. I've always had this same idea, but the trouble was that my trade entries were always so far also into the trend of reversal, that there was no way a stop could be anywhere close to this point. My need for confirmation, dare I say to be right for getting on board this trade because look, it really is moving in the right direction, completely obliterated any notion of a proper stop placement. My entire thinking going forward is now about stop placement and my entry has to allow for the stop to be beyond the danger point. If I want to short below an overnight high which is at 4500 lets say, an I want to use a tight 2 point stop, I better not short any lower than 4499 to at least allow 1 point of penetration above this level. (in reality, 2 points is almost not enough though, but that's a whole other subject). If I hesitate too long and don't get in, then I either have to accept a bigger stop, or not get in it at all. So when looking at every single trade now, its where the stop would go that is guiding my entry. Essentially, this means that I'm trying to be a good loser. If my trade will lose and cost me money, I want to make sure it loses in a spectacular way, not just because of a hiccup. Any time I enter a trade I can be either right or wrong, but if the trade is entered to late, and stop gets hit, and its not past the danger point and hence I'm still not wrong, but I still lose money, this is the worst case scenario. (NoDoji of course in many ways got this ball rolling I think with her one example weeks ago of where a long entry had to go once she said there was a signal to go long if one is to use a 2 point stop) I'm sitting here trying to respond to this in my head first and I keep going around in circles. On the one hand, I'd like to think I don't need any validation from anyone, but this clearly probably isn't the way it always was when I was looking for answers over these past few months. So I will have to ponder this some more. But this entire post of your is absolutely interesting. Learning to operate in this new framework is something I never thought would be the cornerstone of a proper trading mindset. Even reading Douglas early on, I still didn't quite grasp any of this. Sure I could understand the math behind having a edge, not knowing what would happen next in order to make money, the need to evaluate after a series of trades, etc. But all this goes out the window when you're losing money. Maybe its like love. You can read about it till the cows come home, but its not until you feel both the joys and pain of loving someone else that you can truly understand.
Well Sir..., fyi..., time was I was searching for/ wondering / questioning the same Crap just didn't make sense - to be a winner..., be a good loser - pffftt You're headed down a good path..., and you have a cornerstone I really like this analogy RN
OMG... I finally said something smart. I'm gonna go listen to Joni Mitchell - Both Sides now. This version is especially sad, and yet so appropriate when I think about looking at things from a different angle, like love, or trading.
A brilliant method will not be profitable if your psychology sucks. Simply, if you don't have the ability to follow your brilliant method (trading plan)...you can't make profits consistently.
Folks, If you fail to quickly see the psychobabble inherent in these magical traders massive amounts of verbiage--- i can't help you. Its like reading nostrodamus or wyckoff's book. Lots of feel good but non specific and non testable claims and tactics. You will learn the hardway should you decide to follow the advice provided by parrotbot and the minions.