Futures Trading Analysis

Discussion in 'Educational Resources' started by Futures Track, May 8, 2015.

  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Or you can follow the advice of someone whose system self-admittedly only works "sometimes" and "isn't consistently profitable". Why doesn't he fix it? Because he doesn't know how.
     
    #91     May 18, 2015
  2. bone

    bone

    I keep reading posts that in some form of verbiage or another are essentially demanding or expecting certainty. There is no certainty in trading. If you require certainty, get a government job and be done with your life. Seriously.
     
    #92     May 18, 2015
    Gringo and dbphoenix like this.

  3. You are claiming that your system works all the time and is consistently profitable? Obviously, you are and may i remind readers-- your claim of consistent profitability is across all market conditions.

    If you only knew how ridiculous this sounds to anyone involved in the real financial markets.

    surf

    Ps-- its funny that you like Bones post when its actually targeting you. Perhaps this inability to see reality is why you believe you are profitable?
     
    #93     May 18, 2015
  4. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    All price action strategies "work" all the time. Whether they are consistently profitable or not depends on how they're implemented.

    Bones' post was directed toward those who seek certainty. There's nothing certain about the markets.

    And the inability to see reality is why you believe you're a trader, even though your system only works "sometimes" and is not consistently profitable.
     
    #94     May 18, 2015
  5. Lovely evasion with more psychobabble.
     
    #95     May 18, 2015
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    No evasion. Given that your system pretty much sucks, you're hardly in a position to criticize anyone.

    Fix your system. Then get back to us.
     
    #96     May 18, 2015
  7. baro-san

    baro-san

    "The Fox and the Grapes":
    The moral to the story is "It is easy to despise what you cannot get." :)
     
    #97     May 18, 2015
  8. monoid

    monoid

    @marketsurfer:

    Do you understand what price action traders do? In all seriousness you would not keep repeating your gospel if you do understand. I have developed automated systems (which is still deployed at a CTA), and for my individual account, I trade manually — I see certain advantages trading manually which I have elaborated below. Having done both, I believe I might be in a position to say a thing or two about both. Please set aside your bias for a few minutes and read what I have to say.

    First and foremost, all price action traders have a model of price action. They might not call it a “model”, but every one has one. They use this model to ‘read’ the market (‘read’ === ‘analyze’). The model is developed based on data from the market (you will agree with me that this method of developing a model is not inferior to a model developed based on fundamentals — if you do disagree with me here, then you also disagree with the idea of statistical inference, and we will have to stop this discussion here. Assuming we agree, I will continue). What a price action trader strives to achieve is an “ideal” model of price action. Unfortunately, markets never exhibit “ideal” price action behavior. So, it take a long time for a price action trader to develop this “ideal” model of price action.

    So, Why is this “ideal” model of price action important? All price action trader understand that markets seldom produce “ideal” behavior. But, in order to evaluate the actions of the market, one needs a “fixed” point of reference which, in this case, is this “ideal” model of price action. Once a price action trader developed this “ideal” model, she will be in a position to determine the deviation of market behavior from her “ideal” market behavior and can trade accordingly. Please bear in mind that not all deviations from ideal behavior are tradable, and this is where “patterns” come to play. A “pattern” is nothing more than a “tradable” deviation of market behavior that the trader has identified using her “ideal” price action model.

    A question arises: Does these “patterns” have any statistical merit. This question is not interesting as this can be easily backtested — back tests do not require automation; back tests can also be performed manually.

    The more interesting question is why do these “patterns” have statistical merit? The answer, which was surprising to me, is that the “ideal” model of price action of successful price action traders are very similar — so, they are all looking at similar levels and wanting to do similar things around those levels.

    Everything I have said above is also the process followed by a Systems Trader — have a model, identify statistically valid patterns, and trade it (although the word 'pattern' takes on a different meaning in this context).

    So, what is the difference between the two? A Price Action trader believes that an inexact reproduction by the market of a [trader identified] "pattern" is source of information, and she will take this new information into account and adjust her trades accordingly. A Systems Trader, by design, decides not to use such new information, and so does not adjust her traders. This is the primary reason why you will see claims by Systems Traders that the “market conditions have changed, and so the system is no longer valid”; whereas, Price Action traders will most likely say “yes, markets have changed, yet so much remains the same”.

    I, like many other Price Action traders, have come to believe that understanding Price Action provides a trader the skill set required to adapt to changing market conditions without having to change the ["ideal"] model of price action. A Systems Trader does not develop this skill set -- for a system trader, a change in market condition requires development of a new model. This, to me, is a big advantage that a Price Action trader has over a System Trader. The cost paid by a Price Action trader for securing such an advantage is forgoing full automation [although partial automation is still possible].

    Now to the psychobabble part: Given that a Price Action trader is accounting for new market information (deviations to the identified pattern) as they are generated by the market, it take a lot of mental focus and conviction to execute the trade. This does not come naturally and hence the talk about needing the mental ability to execute trades.

    So, instead of showing your ignorance, arrogance, and pretending to play the part of Savior, ask questions; you may learn a thing or two, which in-turn might help you in your System development.

    All the best.

    Regards,
    Monoid.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2015
    #98     May 18, 2015
    Roffe, damnpenguins, game and 4 others like this.
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    Apparently my mind a fertile playground tonight



    I tout the importance of discipline - discipline with respect to the trader..., the approach..., each trade

    And while it true..., discipline is what will take one to profitability

    Discipline..., alone..., is not what keeps us there


    Open mindedness is

    The ability to innovate / adapt / assimilate - to the ever evolving mkt

    Discipline (a form of regimented / closed mindedness) is the exact opposite of open mindedness

    In the normal world - finding one who possess both these abilities equally - is rare (and when you do run across one - most think he/ she a nut job)

    In the trading world - for the manual trader - it a must

    (I affectionately call it - thinking out of both sides of my brain)




    Just a little sumthin to quiet..., my mind :)

    RN
     
    #99     May 19, 2015
    damnpenguins likes this.
  10. barcadia

    barcadia

    jpy.JPG Price action trading USDJPY
    first trade was a loser. Was a range trade
    Back in long again now on the breakout of the wedge breakout.
     
    #100     May 19, 2015