You mean all the doomsday depression scenarios in the media every day now with interviews of perma bears calling for a multi-year bear market
And nobody listening to BEN & Co monotonic repeating U.S. will experience "slow growth" but no recession...but it seems some smart ass culprits have drunk elixir of wisdom and were figting the FED...
<i>"You mean all the doomsday depression scenarios in the media and interviews with perma bears calling for a multi-year bear market"</i> No, I mean the, "Let's hurry up and get this trivial selloff nuisance over with, so markets can return to new all-time highs. My 401k and IRA are suffering right now, so (Greenspan circa) Bernanke better cut rates asap and make it all better for me" mantra. That's what I meant.
Sorry austin, I couldn't resist IMO, the media has a completely different "feel" to it than 2000/2001. On the other side - as you said - there are always traders/investors that hope, essentially that's what helps a bear market unfold. I just don't see the media feeding any hope in the last couple of weeks/months. While of course this is subjective and anecdotal, quite to the contrary I see a lot of doomsday scenarios painted in the media on how this is "another 1907/1930 depression" and we're in for a "huge stock market contraction as global growth grinds to a halt". To me the media kind of feels like they know they have caused a lot of damage with the 2000/2001 cheerleading and now want to show how they matured and have become more critical and 'objective' to the bull and bear cases. Again, it's just a personal impression, I didn't conduct any scientific study of recent headlines.
i think you're right my best guess is that we just saw act one of something pretty big, and it's dangerous on both sides of the market i think the next failed rally provides opportunity late december rally really had a bear smell to it - too sharp, like a backtest (which it was) my guess, and that's all it is, that having technically confirmed a bear with a lower low, they smoke the amature shorts, give relief to the longs, and then...
This market environment is quite different from the 2000-2001 environment. Throughout this bull phase from 2003 to 2007, people have not really embraced stocks as risk-free and a steady source of returns like they did back from the mid 90s to 2000. People are more hardened and cynical now then back in 2001. I see less speculation, lower expectations than back then. This is a more bullish market than back then. But this is still a bear market. You can't expect the endless selling that we saw in 2001, that was one of the most bearish markets I have seen in a long time. This one will have its own character, but a milder bear market which will last a while nonetheless because the fundamentals are so bad.
"This one will have its own character" very wisely put - they always do I remember people in late 2000-2001 frantically asking, 'is this like '98?, is this like '74?, is this like '29?, and the truth is that they were looking at a unique piece of history unfolding in front of them. it was the tech wreck of 01 people will be wise to give whatever this one is it's due - at the very least, it will have it's own twists and turns, be it milder or worse on the S & P, this one actually has a more sharp introduction, it's already erased what would be 'wave 5' of the bull, for those who do elliot wave. (i think elliot wave can be a real circle jerk for those who get too caught up in it, but it can sometimes be observed in hindsight, 3 phases of early mid and late trend)