Futures is up, is collapse over?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by The Kin2, Jan 17, 2008.

  1. Futures have been acting strange the last couple of nights. They are currently up. Would that signal an end to the freefall?
  2. tetuan01


    IBM news and rumors that Bernanke cuts rates before markets open tomorrow. When there isn't a rate cut tomorrow, I expect the markets to tank once again.
  3. Isn't the next meeting within 2 weeks? A rate cut tomorrow would send a very bold statement. Maybe even cause equities to sell off further since the fed would basically be saying the economy is on the brink of collapse. (which it probably is but that's another story)
  4. On a short-term basis, the market is setting up for a monster rally event. If it ignites intraday, don't be surprised if they ramp +50pts ES (or more) in violent fashion. Late July 2002 was a 70ish point intraday ramp from low to high. We'll probably see at least one of those this year as big or bigger.

    But, many of the coming rallies will be completely reversed the next session or two at most... especially a surprise rate-cut event. See Jan 2001 and April 2001 for the results each time.

    Some rallies this year will stick for weeks, maybe longer. Expect everyone waiting with baited breath to proclaim a bottom is in, bear market is dead, etc.

    We can also expect lower lows, grinding selloffs and overall sector deterioration. Stock markets have suffered a triple heart attack and paralyzing stroke here in the first two weeks of 2008. Anyone who thinks they'll be ready for spring-training wind sprints anytime soon is deluded, to be kind.

    Welcome to the early stages of a true bear market. Make the necessary adjustments to what you saw today and sessions prior. We'll be served a steady diet of them.

    Enjoy the bear-market rallies when they ignite. It is something to behold, while they last. Review your charts from April 2000 ~ Oct 2002 for a refresher course = road map of overall general behavior to come.

    There is a multi-year bottom out there ahead, somewhere below today's session low. Probably much further below than most active traders = investors can possibly fathom.

    Time will tell... it always does
  5. Did the same shit last night. I think spooz was up 10 handles and DOW +90 at 3am.

    Obviously, you know what happened today....

    But who know's, one of these rallies will stick sooner or later....
  6. RL8093


    Some in-the-money shorts getting antsy (and covering) as they watch them climb. Tomorrow's the last day before a long weekend ....

    They also know what AustinP says has a ring of truth to it. When the shorts start to see their paper-profits disappear - it gets violent ...

  7. fed futures are soaring. There is now an implied 125 bps cut by June 08. Its gonna be interesting.
  8. Good post AustinP.

    Those massive short squeeze rips in 2001 and 2002 were incredible.
  9. I'd say this is a fair assessment and agree with the outlook.
  10. Thanks for the insight all.
    #10     Jan 17, 2008