I'd say 95% chance. How about a 100bp cut? I don't think it's out of the question. 50bps right now? Not enough.
You guys are getting just a tad absurd with your calls, no? 6000 now? Why not take it all the way down to, say, 2000?
hehe. yea but i wasnt long a few weeks ago sweet r/r possible reversal area is my read. the fact that you guys are panicing your asses off isnt the reason i made the trade, but it reassures me it is a good one! PS: i dont care if I am right or not, my r/r on this trade is over 3/1 on first target and 5+/1 on my second. i need a winner 25% of the time here to break even
You know, I will admit straight up S&P sub 1k shocked me today in the sense that it really is different this time. And I never was a big fan of 'it's different this time.'
Nikkei Plunges 9.4 Pct, Biggest 1 - Day Fall Since '87 By REUTERS Published: October 8, 2008 Filed at 2:08 a.m. ET TOKYO (Reuters) - The Nikkei average plunged 9.4 percent on Wednesday, its biggest one-day drop since the 1987 stock market crash, as fear spread of a global recession, fueled by expectations of a slide in profits at Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> and a firmer yen. Panic over the fast-spreading financial crisis dragged down markets across Asia, with Japanese steelmakers such as Nippon Steel Corp <5401.T> sliding, as the Nikkei set another five-year closing low. "The deteriorating outlook for the economy and the deepening financial crisis are pushing fear to its limit," said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management. "Investors want to dump shares as their willingness to take risks has shrunk, but no one wants to buy even if stocks are valued cheaply." The yen climbed to a six-month high against the tumbling U.S. dollar, as investors stampeded away from stocks and risky positions. The Nikkei posted its biggest one-day fall since a 14.9 percent drop on October 20, 1987, the day after Black Monday. The Indonesia Stock Exchange halted trading on Wednesday after the benchmark composite index <.JKSE> dropped more than 10 percent, while Hong Kong's main stock market index <.HSI> dropped more than 5 percent. The benchmark Nikkei <.N225> slid 952.58 points to 9,203.32, its lowest close since 2003. The broader Topix <.TOPX> lost 8.0 percent to 899.01. Toyota tumbled 11.6 percent to 3,280 yen after the Nikkei business daily said it was likely to post a 40 percent slide in annual profit, thanks to weak sales in North America and slower growth in China. A company source told Reuters that Toyota was considering cutting its annual earnings forecasts due to sluggish demand. Analysts said that even at lower valuations, investors would still shun the market as more companies were expected to cut their earnings forecasts. (Reporting by Aiko Hayashi; Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano and Kiyoshi Takenaka; Editing by Rodney Joyce)
At 0604 GMT, futures for the Eurostoxx 50 STXEc1, Germany's DAX FDXc1 and the French CAC 40 FCEc1 were down between 4.2 percent and 4.9 percent. For those not in the know, at the time of this post it is 0632 GMT.