yeah earnings have been good....but this isn`t any different for the last 14 months.....the difference between may and november isn`t earnings.....it is the time of year.....look when the highs for msft, dell, yhoo were before this runnup.....they were last year`s runnup......then selloff the rest of the year.....wallstreet is so bs......they don`t provide a real market duing the runnup....they just push the asks up by buying on the asks......then real markets return and these things drop back to more reasonable levels====but your making my point, with higher expectations of earnings based on tough comps, with an agreed upon slowdown next year in gdp growth.....earnings are going to miss bigtime by recent standards......that is why i will put and cover...put and cover....every sell-off/rally from here til next november I liquidated my last long positions wed by selling on nice profits....only puts jan07, march 07 right now for my positioning....of course will be daytrading futures...what do you mean by black swan event.......I don`t think we need some "rare, unusual event" to bring these markets back to within their normal standard deviation range.......they will drift lower just by market dynamics alone by money managers agenda, normal cyclical economic trends, and the fact that "this move" was the "outlying event" that will revert back to the mean......it is the "black swan" in the 12 month time frame overlayed with in the last 36 month context.
I would anticipate some strength/demand thru month end/window dressing,etc...as this has been a good month for the various funds et all. VIX was below 10 Wed .too...I believe the lowest it has been in quite some time. Hence,quite a bit of complacency it appears. I already have a position in a leveraged short Dow ETF-Proshares Ultra Dow Short(DXD) as a hedge and will add to it on subsequent strength. May be wrong,but am inclined to feel much more downside risk here than upside potential after this huge,noncorrecting move of the last few months. That is unless the PPT wants it to go up more..in that case I have a tight stop(8%). GLTA.
Bluestreek...we are on the same page. And let's not forget the recent election and potential motivations by some leading up to it. Kinda like gas prices dropping a buck before it too.. Kevin Haggerty-ex Fidelity Capital Trading Mgr. who posts at Trading Markets.com is singing the same tune. Time for a little reversion to the norm/mean shortly boys.
i don't know if this is the top or not. made a nice 188K though today. am currently flat. will re-evaluate next week. if anything i'd be leaning for at least a little more downside.
i see geo-political pressures affecting markets next week alone...is enough to tip the scales the other way.....BUSH in Jordan....already is becoming symbolic for the clerics in IRAQ....they will do some boneheaded event with the news spotlight on Jordan/Iraq. It is jst dumb for Bush to do this....at the very least your going to have lots of bombs going off in Iraq in easy target neighborhoods...the difference is....the media will be all over it this week. Worst case is they try to make a splash.....with a higher profile event. The dollar scenario is worrisome as well.....gold spiked to 640.....usually oil and gold move together.....if oil breaks through 62.......the bulls strong mantra is negated......and bears firmly in control.....which is so stupid to begin with as people forget that 55.00 dollar a barrel is historically pretty damn high.....and nothing to celebrate....but that`s the pr game....justify the hype....it works both ways....bears do the same thing....I `m neither a bear or a bull....i look at relative value.....given the various geo-political/economic fundamentals.....and the current market is relatively over-valued right now and will correct.
I wonder how much the futures are going to gap up huge due to the great retail #s from Black Friday!!! GO FUTURES!! GO MARKET!!! NO RISK $$$$
up 6% to 8.96 billion, im waiting for the 3 day total. Last year the total was $27.8 Billion...so besides the one day $8.96 billion we still have to wait and see what the entire 3 days brings in.
totally irrelevant.....markets way overbought-----oil could drop down to 30 a barrel.......its still time for sell-off......do you realize what lofty levels you are at........all time highs.........duh......only one place to go down. Its just a matter of how fast we descend from here......so keep hyping....i mean hoping
wavelink, liked your previous commentaries. What do you think of the market chart now? Personally, I don't think the fifth wave of this run up will be allowed to be somewhat truncated, as it looks currently if this is the beginning of the downtrend. I'm thinking the market could surprise a lot of bears yet again and pull off another new high, a la irregular top. Usually the first break of a long TL is a fakeout. Your thoughts?
Yes, it very possible that was an EXPANDED FLAT with wave C down with wave 5 to come and end late December. It's important to watch the next leg up to see if it's a corrective wave with wave 3 down to come, or if it's wave 1 of 5.