futures as long term investment?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kubilai, Oct 25, 2008.

  1. kubilai


    Does anyone have experience with this?

    I'm thinking to invest with a 1-2 year timeframe, rolling over as needed. So is it more efficient to use contracts spaced apart by 6 months and eat the bigger spread or rollover into the next available contract? Any good tricks to reduce rollover cost?

  2. kxvid


    1-2 years? The rollover costs should be peanuts if you are using a cheap broker. One thing to consider: is what you are buying or selling in contango or backwardation? By using contango or backwardation to your advantage, you can make more money and more than makup for the farout expiration contract spreads.
  3. Why not just buy the ETF? (i.e. QQQQ, SPY)
  4. the problem with futures, is they are always losing value due to the intrinsic storage/interest within futures. Longterm, is it a poor investment

    ETFs are much better.
  5. Surdo


    Carrying costs of an ETF require at least 50% in the account plus margin interest guy!

    The performance bond of 100oz of Gold is $7425 overnight for $73,570 notional value.
  6. that's absolutely correct

    it's absurd to pay margin interest for a shorted etf, when you can simply take a 50 dollars per point directional bet using ES instead of SPY, and you get 60/40 tax treatment

    i have helped a longer term investor use es as a hedge as opposed to figuring out what to sell in a crisis, and the results have been nothing short of fantastic - futures were shorted above 1300 spx

    why pay 10 months margin interest for nothing?
  7. Check out First Notice contango when crude oil and soybeans rolled over in September last month, it was brutal and I have never experienced such rollover costs – if you hit it wrong you pay.
  8. i dont think you ever get contigo on a stock index future, although i suppose it is possible

    and i think for semi long term position, futures are better for short than long
  9. kubilai


    Two reasons for using futures vs ETF:
    - Tie up much less capital
    - Some products are not available in ETF

    Thanks for the note on contango/backwardation, an educating read.

    What's the best way to rollover? Two market orders is guaranteed but awfully inefficient. Is there a best time of the rollover day to do it? Maybe one limit order and then fire off the market order when it fills?
  10. Daal


    there is no 'cost' in rolling over a contangoed contract(it's a non cashflow transaction), if you think it will be ALWAYS a losing position to do that then you ought think its free money to short that contract.
    #10     Oct 27, 2008