Discussion in 'Trading' started by jmh, Sep 25, 2007.
anyone read any good letter writers for futures or options?
The options price depends on the movement of the underlying stock or index.
You really don't need any newsletters if you can adequately "forecast" the movement of the underlying. If you can't then you really shouldn't be into options at all.
For safety sake NEVER EVER buy options with less than 100 days to expiration (and this is if you trade short term (about a week).
For a beginner 180 days would be better.
With such a long time to expiration you are much less exposed to time-decay and volatility changes.
Ya, and profit potential as well.
My favorite time to trade options is expiration week. Delta is high, premium is low, and since they are generally more liquid the spreads are tighter.
I respectfully disagree.
Although you alway have to predict something, option trading does not necessarily have to trade market direction as the primary factor. As I'm sure you know, one dimensional futures depend soley upon market direction and timing. Options can be traded upon things other than that. Volatility is traded. Spreads are traded, including neutral movement spreads. Systemic writing systems exist. And many others.
I think it is more accurate to say, if you can ONLY predict direction and timing of the underlying then one should only trade futures. In fact, it'd be crazy to do anything else. Truth of the matter is that very very few can predict direction and timing with enough ROI to overcome the vig.
The next logical step imo is to then learn to trade something else where price independant elements can be stacked with price dependant ones to make the system more robust.
One man's opinion.
Peace and gtty,
Or trade the short side and use time decay to your advantage.
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