The is a liquidity driven rally....yes it will end at some point. You start shorting the market when TARP ends...we are talking Oct next year...so summer 2010. With the amt of $$ the fed is printing, you have to own assets (assets go up when you push more $$'s into the system). Price the market in USD terms....we are about even this year. USD is down what, 15-20%? Market is up 20%...it is all a balancing act. Bank are not lending...what are they doing with all the $$? They are putting it into equities, bonds and commodities. Have you seen the money supply? Talk about a hockey stick! You own equities and commodities (silver is the best) till summer next year...then get out...and best bet is to short the 10 year bond...rates will be going higher much more than the market goes down in terms of making % returns.
yep more frothhhhy markets... and you know what happens when markets get frothhhhhhhhhyyyyyy.... they collapse just like every other time markets have gotten frothy from greed.
i say since we're on a roll lets raise $20 bil each for greece,spain,hungary and throw in $10 bil for portugal. then for dessert we'll raise $5 bil for africa.the whole world is a printing press.since nobody goes under it means the whole world will be a japan with trillions of $'s devoted to zombie co's and country's.the future looks bleak indeed.
what is the deal with the entire world thinking that bond investors should never be allowed to lose money again? this is truly insane. underwater in your mortgage?... walk away or wait for the govt to force the holder to write it down. fund idiots who build to the sky and beyond (ie: spending billions to make man-made islands to take speculation to a new level) and get in trouble? no problem- we'll bait you out. here's your capital back- with interest! sure do wish someone would make me whole for all my stupidity over the past 14 months. if only i'd lost $300B instead of only 300,000- then i'd be free and clear too... one thing is for sure- there is no way this ends anything but badly. to the poster looking to short the 10 yr bond- more bang for your buck shorting the 30 year. one would think. then again, this is the bizarro world, so BUY BUY BUY...
you forgot the 1.1b in additional spending the dems just jammed down our throats. the dems in congress remind of looters after the lakers win a championship. they know they've got the numbers and that this doesn't come around very often, so they've got 4 LCD's strapped to their backs and 5 more in their kid's red wagon. nobody around to police their actions, so they've completely lost their minds... i weep for our future.
Yes, u r correct...30 year is better, and I plan on starting shorts on that the first of the spring 2010. Guberment can manipulate the short end of the curve, but cannot the long end. Cheers!