I just wanted to share this funny tidbit before the Bears game comes on! So I'm a cheapass right? There's this economic book for my class . . it costs like 120 bucks used. But the catch is: it's the 11th edition (2004). The 1st edition came out in 1976 and is generally the same, except for references to of course, current economic conditions. In one of the problems: What's Wrong with This Economic Logic? In the next 30 years our consumption of oil will increase fourfold. Yet in the last 30 years, our supply has only doubled. Production is unable to keep up with demand. Unless the government imposes a quota system, we will most assuredly run out of oil in the year 2000. How funny is this? Typical academic making assumptions about a world supply he knows next to nothing about, besides some other academic's estimation? Here it is the year 2006 and we are far from "running out". Kills me what some people will say.
far from running out? id say his predictions were fairly accurate. i suggest you learn about the global oil production peak. there was a good movie on it called 'the end of suburbia' if you dont like reading. Talk to anyone who's lives are greatly effected by the price of gas. They will tell you it sure seems like we are running out, and its only going to get worse. http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-8707025684167005227&q=the+end+of+suburbia
Also read my post: Definitions of peak oil. I gave 3 different definitions, by 2 we already passed peak oil and we are passing according to the 3rd...
I'll admit that it is possible that the prices are artificially inflated by the oil companies. And the war in Iraq is designed to cover up. But I think that is just wishful thinking. And even if that isint the case, the fact still remains that oil is a finite resource, and for our economy to grow, we need to produce more oil than we were the year before. We are heading into hard times in the next 50-100 years regardless of what the oil companies are doing. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm
I urge you to look at the history of what you are saying. When people like you say the end is near, our course is chosen and there is nothing left but to dwindle down into the abyss. Things are about to change for the better. Once you have all dumped your money into the next pocket of fear it will end and a new fear will rise to consume your money and your mind. It may not be tommorow but over the course of decades we will find/decide on new power sources to make things cheaper and more complicated than we can imagine today. Look and maybe read the history books you mocked the other guy about, and see how wrong the collective can be. In recent past I give you Oil in the teens, Nasdaq 5000, and Dow at 7200. Some people made a lot of money on all that fear. History teaches that things can get pretty bad and pretty good. Not generally all good and all bad. My 2 cents. JIM
you're probably right. since the price of oil is obviously going to go down. how about you sell me some cheap options?
Right, but you guys forgot one important factor. The most important factor. OPEC controls the prices. If they wish to make oil $100 a barrel they can do so, if they wish to lower it they can do the same. This will happen until we find another source of energy which will be less expensive than oil. although oil will not become obsolete b/c we still need it for making of plastic, etc.
I wouldn't bet on that. There hasn't been any MAJOR oilfield discovery in the last 30 years. The biggest discoveries were in hard to reach places like a few thousand feet underwater and such...