Sure they are the first in manipulation : they invented Globex and imposed it to the world : Globex is the most manipulated maket you can see And French market officials were even caught by a judge for manipulating bonds market with fake transactions. And per se they had to give the pretext that other countries do so also so I have A REAL PROOF that OFFICIALS have at least one big occasion since it was during the 1999 Bubble that they intentionally manipulated the market themselves.
>because you have something based in principles not patterns As for patterns, there is a polemic today on their existence, opponents saying that chartists just fit to the datas they see AFTERWARDS. But what if I can predict patterns BEFORE they appear (for example concretly I could predict things like "a W pattern will appear at the super bottom with 7918 as first leg and 7935 as pic" )? Well I could do that easily in principle, I just have to find some times to organise the datas to do so.
"Well I could do that easily in principle, I just have to find some times to organise the datas to do so." as soon as you do that and make your first billion, let us know.
Although I am defending Wyckoff principles I am a quantitative trader. My main job is to model the markets, and in order to model markets we must have a substantive theory of markets. Since you referred the Faculty of the Santa Fe Institute I believe you must be in their line of thought regarding market modelling (i.e. Doyle Farmer). Crude models can capture important aspects of market behaviour. Power laws in physics are often seen in systems where the âprinciple of universalityâ applies. If the power law conjecture is correct, market models need only consider a few crucial details of traderâs behaviour, leaving out many economic variables. A mathematical formula that models the behaviour of professional traders is not something new. I have 4 within my company and also know of a few successful managers that use models of this type - Peter Borish is among them â I am not so bright to devise this for myself. Anyway, it should be obvious to those more mathematically gifted (not my case) that some equations that are used to model biological and physical systems can be used to explain market behaviour, specially if you use assumptions from that have been tested. What you are looking is order in the markets, using not tested empirical assumptions. Tell me harry, have you ever traded, or you are just trying to sell something?
snip snip Tell me harry, have you ever traded, or you are just trying to sell something? [/B][/QUOTE] waht will you mke of his answer if he has one?
Tell me how many times will I have to repeat the same thing huh ? I have been trading for seven years only on futures and I began as a scalper and didn't have any special method except traditional ones. I made this model after the liquidity of the matif degraded when the open cry market was closed and replaced by the electronic market. And you are you trying to sell something ? If yes I don't care ! Do what you want. You want me to reply yes ? Just guess it will be much more funny no ? Now open your hears wide: My site is not free I have said it numerous number of times but I don't even make a link to it: do you know the url of my site ? I have erased it from my profile 2 months ago and you won't even find it on search engine I haven't even registered it yet. And you do you have something to sell huh ? What's your reason to post here hahaha ! Question: are you a communist since you are against commerce ? What are you doing here then ? waht will you mke of his answer if he has one? [/B][/QUOTE]
Before searching my model I have looked at the state of Art by reading doctorate thesis I bought. Research is around Chaos and Agent theory. Nevertheless they are just tools. To understand Lorentz equations was a tool for Relativity theory but the theory comes only from imagination first and Einstein discovered it (although there is a polemic that someoneelse could have discovered it already). I didn't follow Sante Fe direction: Why because epistemologically I am from Henri Poincarré School in Science and Walter Shewart in Statistics and in these schools reality cannot be fully accessed by mathematics world but only by physics and with a theory of knowledge. It is not pure adhesion to schools it is also experience. As Poincarré said if science was all about syllogism you wouldn't need human to find new theories. You take a Cray, you enter datas and it will render you some theories. That's the dream of Neuronal approach a few dozen years but after the delusion came and today the same kind of fashion come back with agents theory. I don't mean that agent theories is not important to understand the market, I mean it won't conduct to the ultimate cause so prediction will reach the limit of stochastic approach the kind of Heinsenberg incertitude. For trading what I have now is much more than I was hoping as a scalper and much more precise than any other model of TA : I have even once made a challenge with a professional trader 2 years ago in real time each time I was ten points more precise than him on real time support and he was really baffled. At that time I didn't have the knowledge I got now on the system. At term the model have potential to really predict the cycle at sub-minutes scales but I need to do some huge datas collections like in gene databases. What I would like to do is really predict the market in price and time minute per minute. At the moment I can predict the super bottom or top on intraday level, and some sequences but I can't predict the time with the same 2 point precision that with price. On upper scale I have some difficulty to grasp the cycle because the intraday subscale act as big noise. But when I will have finish to gather all the databases to predict the cycles in details I should be able to generalise to upper scale much more easily.
Why should I tell you if ever it is the case Seeing the jealousis of people for just a few millions is enough not to tell them when it would be a billion. But a billion is not easily reached because of scale factor. At one billion I won't bother to speculate, if you have one billion you invest and speculation is just for fun.
Harry, TA is a behavioral science. TA has as its premise the underlying security of human behavior based on a similar learned conduct, and is the option contract upon that security. You spelled a word using "ised" instead of the Americanized "ized", which suggests that your basic Economic learning occurred offshore to the Americas. Given that premise, then TA would suggest that your data would produce (skewed) another set of conclusions from those raised and schooled in traditional American business theorum. TA works to the extent that mathematics works to help with averages. Averages never represents the mean, high, low or midpoint, but the composite divided by the mass. TA has its sever limitations as you pointed out. Captain Hook challenged all those orphans not to believe in Peter, because Mr. Pan was a figment of a child's imagination. So, Harry, you just gotta believe