Discussion in 'Trading' started by NASCARFan, Oct 19, 2002.
See if www.interactivebrokers.com can change that opinion of yours.
One more thing:
I once developed an extremely profitable daytrading system. I found a setup that was profitable for certain values of its parameters, set the parameters accordingly, optimized it a little bit, and let my computer apply it to the last 100 trading days. It did 700 trades and made a little more than 100%, always trading only 100 shares at a time.
Next, I calculated the probability that my system was NOT consistently profitable and the results I was seeing were pure coincidence. That probability was something in the vicinity of .5%. That meant that I could be 99.5% sure that my system actually had a positive expectancy.
I started trading the system in real time (fortunately I decided to still paper trade for a week or two, just to be sure), and it lost money the first day. It lost again on the second day. To cut a long story short, it became more and more obvious that my system indeed had an expectancy just around zero.
So I developed a completely different daytrading system in much the same way (by finding parameters for which it backtested profitably), let it run through a few hundred trades, determined that there was a 99.some odd % chance that it would be consistently profitable, and it turned out to only break even in real time paper trading. Just like the first one.
Note that slippage is NOT the reason for this phenomenon, since I never actually traded real money, so any miscalculation of slippage would be IN ADDITION to the effects observed.
If you can explain to me exactly how on earth it is possible that each one of those systems has such a miniscule probability of failure, yet each and every one DOES fail in real time tests, then we can start talking business.
To all others: I know the answer to my question is easy, albeit not trivial, and I am sure some of you know it, but please don't spoil it for NASCARFan!
I do wish you the best of luck, but I myself have found how hard it is to get capital together, and I have (what I consider to be) an impressive 3 year record of using real capital and trading in a real account. Through real trades, I have made....
2002 +53.09% (account marked at market as of Oct 15's close)
In the end, through all my efforts, I have only been able to hobble together a little under 300k in investor capital in total (not including my own capital). This money comes almost completely from friends and family. No one else who I've contacted thus far has shown me any interest. I suggest that if you are legit, that you ask friends and family for money and show them your results. If you are not for real, I doubt that you'll get any funding. Without real results from a real account, it's nearly impossible. In fact it's nearly impossible when using a real account with real gains. Much more difficult that I ever expected at least....
Let me point out that it was my father who gave me my first capital though. And that capital was based on a notebook that I kept of trades that I did over a 6 month period.
Thanks to all those that have provided me with specific advice on how to make this work. The web sites, the capital raising ideas, and discussions submitted on forum, via phone, and email have inspired my efforts further. To everyone that responded, your input is greatly appreciated.
Why not post the signals real time one day in a chat room on mirc. This would give everyone a chance to see your system perform and it would also give you some creditability regarding the worth of your system. Good luck.
I second Trapper's suggestion.
I would suggest you lower your win percentage to something believable.
what is this chatroom? mirc? need to find one that is a quality site to talk stocks during the trading day. thanks.
The Holy Grail ...
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