Its very hard to get it right. If central banks and big money funds are not driving the market, the other significant player in forex are the market makers, these are generally big banks which take our trades and they will move price in any direction they want and their aim is to make us lose. So if retail traders place many BUY trades in EURUSD and less SELL trades, generally price will move against the side which has more weight, and in this case the market makers and their friends will drive the EURUSD price down so that the retail buyers lose. When they take the buyer's money then they will turn their attention to the sellers so they will push price up and make the sellers lose. Its a bit like in the casino where the house always wins Use the daily FX sentiment page to get an idea of what is going on with retail positions and follow the trading side which has the lower %. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment-report
yes , best solution but to acquire more experience about fundamental is a long time approach , so its really a challenging.
I always monitor the time of important news releases from the economic calendar. Such news very often sharply increases volatility in the market. I do not trade at such times, since the price often behaves unpredictably.