Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by debra1970p, Jun 25, 2008.

  1. Okay, let me preface this by saying that I'm a newbie. I've been doing my analysis from a technical perspective and wanted to put in a buy stop of december wheat this morning at 9252. My brokerage sends out fundamental news daily and I just wanted to see what they were saying about cbot wheat. They were saying that people should sell at 924. So given this, it kind of scared me out of putting in the trade.
    Now, I look at my quote page and december wheat has gone up to 949!! :(

    Should I have just ignored the fundamentals?

  2. 1) You could have, should have, might have ignored the "fun-duh-mentals".
    2) More important, you have to believe in your method and be confident enough to take your trade signals as they arise even when you have incomplete information.
    3) If your buy-stop had been filled, could you have withstood the ~6-cent retracement that happened afterwards before the market exploded to the upside?
  3. Hi, yes, my stop loss would've been lower than that.

    Oh, I just heard from my broker that it was a pesticide scare that drove the price up.
  4. Debra, since your trading method is based on TA I strongly urge you to ignore all the noise, such as the reccomendations from your broker and the news. Just focus on the charts ...
    Question: have you backtested your method on a significant data sample?
  5. caroy


    Since the explosion in wheat last feb/mar wheat has been a schizophrenic contract. This lumbering giant used to move thousands of contracts around a few cent range now it's more fun to watch than anything else.

    Rumors are the great short in the spring wheat squeeze was the Canadian government. Brilliant.