fundamentals on XMSR?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by RunTrade, Nov 22, 2005.

  1. So I believe XMSR will beat 4th Qtr expectations by a large amount, and thus I will go long.

    Fundamentals (can you check/argue these for me?):
    [all numbers are in thousands, except EPS or otherwise noted]

    4th Qtr EPS estimate: -0.89
    Shares Outstanding: 222.21M

    Thus, XMSR is expected to have net income of ($197,767) in 4th Qtr.

    Looking at the ttm income statement numbers, I can give these rather conservative (more expenses than predicted) numbers:

    Gross Profit: ~$50,000...this is assuming no growth over last qtr.

    R+D: <= $10,000
    SGA: ~ $120,000
    Others: ~ $40,000... based on previous stable figures
    Interest Expense: ~ $27,000
    Income Tax: =579
    Preferred Stock Adjustments: = ($2,149)

    Add them all together (G.P. minus expenses) and I expect only about a loss of $150,000, or -0.67 per share. (0.67) compared to (0.89) is quite a large difference (earnings surprise of about 25%) and I expect a decent profit can be made. Keep in mind that there is little/no growth in these estimates and expenses are on the heavy side.

    Anyone agree? Disagree? My biggest concern is when to enter? now or very close to announcement?