Fundamental news that affects the price of crude oil and natural gas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by cole_, Dec 10, 2017.

  1. cole_

    cole_

    Crude oil:
    OPEC announcements
    Baker Hughes oil rig report
    EIA storage report

    Natural Gas:
    EIA natural gas storage report
    The weather

    News that may affect natural gas but im not sure:
    Baker Hughes oil rig report
    OPEC announcements
    EIA oil storage report
    Nonfarm payrolls
    BLS job openings

    what else?
     
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    Hurricanes
    Middle-east political unrest
    other forms of supply disruptions.
     
    murray t turtle and Xela like this.
  3. Xela

    Xela


    Welcome to ET.

    I know nothing about natural gas, but I trade crude oil a bit (it's my "second instrument") and one of the things I like about it - and indeed one of the reasons I chose it - is how little fundamental information (relatively speaking) one has to be aware of, to trade it.

    There are only really major news announcements like the ones mentioned above, which nobody could really avoid, and the weekly oil report, usually on a Wednesday morning, that penetrate my consciousness at all.

    There's tons of other "information" about, of course, but personally I don't find any of it helpful, relevant or necessary.

    (I'm trading intraday only, which might be relevant to my perspective.)
     
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  4. Farmas

    Farmas

    What to do about it?
     
  5. Quantower

    Quantower

    NG primarily depends on weather data.
    Crude Oil depends on various factors (not only supply/demand, but also on political news). Recommend read:
    1) Price Formation in Financialized Commodity Markets: The Role of Information
    2) The Domino Effect by E. Russell Braziel
     
    TraDaToR likes this.
  6. philpsw

    philpsw

    The price of mineral resources is going to the floor. Nations have to look for a plan b to become independent of these obsolete policies. In the blockchain technology there is a change together with cryptocurrencies. Someone to tell me if I am equal, I doubt it very much.
     
  7. %%
    Good points, even though a supply disruption chart drives many back to price charts. LOL.
    Midpoint stuff can help-that can be Wed.......:cool:.NOT a prediction[Edit note before Wednesday- have had better/profitable seasons with Hurricane Hydrocarbons- actually that was a liquid stock .]
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2017
  8. Overnight

    Overnight

    Something else that was fun to observe was when hurricane Harvey started bearing down on Texas. Gasoline prices shot through the roof as the refineries started shutting down and when the major pipeline serving the northeast region became submerged underwater. Not to mention, Sep RB contract was just about to expire.

    At the same time one would figure that crude prices would have gone up as well because of the gulf wells shutting down, but NO. WTI sank because no refinery output = less crude demand! That one caught me by surprise, because IIRC it was tropical storm Cindy earlier in the year that hit the Gulf and caused crude to rise. Thus was expecting the same from Harvey.

    Glad I didn't trade on my expectations that time.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Just as a side note, from my perspective fundamental news releases have for the most part had a rather muted effect the past several years in the US hydrocarbon space - my own personal theory is that there is just so much freaking supply in North America that it tends to dull the effect. North American hydrocarbon supply has just profoundly changed the global scenario. It's like this huge overhanging anesthetic on the market. NK is popping off ICBMs, existential political and social upheaval in the Middle East, a power consolidation in the Saudi Royal family, an economic blockade of Qatar, etc. etc. It just does not seem to goose the markets.

    Just ask OPEC. Look at what happened to Saudi Arabia when they attempted to decapitate the North American fracking and oil sands business economics ...

    IMO the most significant correlator these days to CL is the S&P 500 and the pick up in economic activity.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2017
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  10. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    #10     Dec 11, 2017