Well I could say glibly a trend is a trend if my trend-following strategy can trade it as a trend. But as vanilla trends still occur on charts and still look like trends and act like trends, maybe the best I might accept (but not without evidence) is that trends might be less common and less prolonged than they used to be. Then again, for all I know, they might be more common and more prolonged than they used to be. But if you do have some data to the contrary, why not let's see it.
It may well be that your trend following strategy works, I don't know, only you know. But I think we can safely agree that a Richard Dennis would not be Richard Dennis today, given he embarked on the same strategy approach today that he pursued decades ago. I remember he actually mentioned that himself. I still invite you to conduct your own verification of my claims, it should be fairly simple as, I believe, there must be a gazillion different types of trend indicators out there. Not to win or lose an argument but for your own benefit.
I disagree. Various original Turtle trader group members are still profitable following variations on the same theme, while countless more trend-followers are since recognised and proven as master traders in their own right, amongst them - • Bruce Kovner is worth more than $4.1 billion. • John W. Henry is worth $840 million. • Bill Dunn made $80 million in 2008. • Michael Marcus turned an initial $30,000 into $80 million. • David Harding is now worth more than $690 million. • Ed Seykota turned $5,000 into $15 million over 12 years. • Kenneth Tropin made $120 million in 2008. • Larry Hite has made millions upon millions over 30 years. • Louis Bacon is worth $1.7 billion. • Paul Tudor Jones is worth $3 billion. • Transtrend, a trend-trading fund, has produced hundreds of millions, if not billions, in profit. • Trend following trader Man Group trades $68.6 billion in assets. (https://www.turtletrader.com/2017/11/16/show-me-the-money/) From my own personal experience in the UK, I can add Alpesh Patel and his Praefinium Group, and David Harding and Winton.
For me, at least, FA moves the market immediately. However, because I am a TA trader, I wait for the MARKET to digest that news and act accordingly. Only because I am a TA trader who makes his bank on very short term moves. They both work...depending on your time horizon.
[QUOTE = "tomorton, post: 4735468, member: 16309"] Estoy en desacuerdo. Algunos de los miembros del grupo de comerciantes de tortugas también están sujetos a la venta del mismo tema, mientras que los demás son clientes de la misma manera, entre ellos: [/ QUOTE] In the end ... it seems that following trends is the most profitable. Maybe more than intraday trading.
You are not factual. How much someone is worth savings wise, has zero bearing on their performance today. On the contrary check their CTA fund performance and you will see that most perform mediocre at best. Also their assets under management have fallen to very low levels. Need a link or you think you can Google that yourself?
Wait, you first say FA is immediately digested by the market and reflected in prices. But then you say you wait for the market to digest. You can only have it one way or another.
Oh boy, someone needs to pick up some 101, and spend more screen time. Please revisit the Eur CHF revaluation saga and talk to all those clients and brokers who went belly up as a result. No stop loss in the world saved them. By the way that one particular example I made in favor of your argument.
Total nonsense. Compare hft performance vs trend following CTAs. Guys, stop reading fake news and hillbilly stories and do your RESEARCH.