Large price moves spanning many months and sometimes years with substantial percentage increases or declines in price happen for fundamental reasons. The causes of such trends interest me and I wonder how one can become knowledgeable about the fundamental situation in a given market. I read Jim Rogers' Hot Commodities book and he explains the fundamental situation of commodities in general and of several markets specifically. That was most interesting. However, I do not know where to find the relevant information and to determine what information is relevant in the first place. For example, in the energy complex I read occasionally that no new refineries were built during the last 20 or so years or that no substantial investment in infrastructure for the transport of natural gas happened in the gulf states in a long time with the result that there is a shortage in the area and some of the states now have to import(!) natural gas for their domestic use. The above two items (refineries and natural gas in the gulf states) are interesting to read about, good and well. But how can one find out these things by oneself, preferably at an opportune time? Or other important developments in other markets, like metals, grains whatever? The past (and current) bull moves in commodities may serve as interesting case studies. And while it is nice to catch them mechanically via long-term trend systems it would be even nicer to have a grasp on the fundamental situation before such moves happen or at least at a reasonably early stage and thereby increasing one's probabilities for success with whatever technical approach one uses for entry and exit. There are some ET members proficient in fundamental or theme based analysis. It would be great if you would shed some light on how you develop a fundamental analysis, decide what information is relevant etc.