Fundamental Analysis - Confuse!!!

Discussion in 'Forex' started by frontier2002, Nov 17, 2006.

  1. Why some fundamental analysis do not follow the results: For example

    1. GBP Interest Rates Announcement - GBP/USD will go down

    2. US TIC Report - GBP/USD Down

    3. US Industrial Production - GBP/USD Down

    How can i predict where exactly the direction of the pair when these data has been released. Where can i learn them!! Thank you!!
  2. When the GBP/USD goes you probably already know the GBP is weaker and/or the USD gets stronger to make the PAIR go down.

    Keep a journal of the previous figures and then the forecasted figures. When the number comes out watch two things...the net change and any surprises...

    There are various calendars out can read them and click links connected to them that have further explanations on how to read them.

    Michael B.
  3. Can u tell me where is the calender you are talking about and how to read them
  4. Skog


  5. fontier - the markets don't always go exactly where the 'book definition' says they should go based on econ news or something. That's the beauty of trading!

    Good luck!
  6. " How can i predict where exactly the direction of the pair when these data has been released." —
    you can't, you can make an informed or otherwise guess/bet

    'buy on rumour, sell on news' — Price will often rally up / down until the release

    releases are a 'bet' — the difference between the Consensus v Actual ie how far
    the Consensus is from the Actual, or the Actual different from the Consensus
    an added difficulty is if a previously unknown 'revision' is announced such as occurred
    with the previous US Non Farm Payroll release

    only sometimes do previous releases provide useful info to base trades upon forthcoming
    releases, different economic cycles

    preferred Econoday site:

    do a Search here on ET for: calendar -- note spelling
  7. I might invent several fundamental stories. I do not know which analysis is correct. I observe the direction of price movement when news appears. The direction of price movement shows which fundamental analysis is correct.