Fun Facts - Sim Day Trading Statistics

Flip a coin. Win or lose.



This is a conservative 3:1 target.
NQ price could hit 21,250 today.

If I lose it (even by 1tick) it's not a problem.
I don't pay attention to what price is doing in between.

Because it's mostly meaningless.
At least for the purpose of this strategy.

 

Now @padutrader
Is your Brook's High Probability Strategy will beat my Dumb and Stupid Coin Flip ?



Hope so ...
Otherwise ... Why fight noise so much ?

KISS

 

I think he's more interested in results (profit vs. loss)

 

Exactly.

We can always improve the probability by taking profits earlier and losses later. But it doesn’t always increase the bottom line.

Taking profits too early or taking loss too late can decrease the expectancy.

It’s going to depends on … the probability distribution of the expected returns from our entry, through the day (Day Trader).

I am trying to improve the expectancy per trade.
I trade the statistics more than the candles.

In the NQ trade above, I know that the conservative TP I took is detrimental to the expectancy. But I am just too human, not perfect. Saw the round 100 numbers and lowered my TP by … 25pts.

 

Different priorities.

Some would rather be right, dogmatic, Brooks or else.

 

In the end we all want to make money.
Using more or less rational means.

 

@padutrader I don't want to get in the middle of your fight but if you have been consistently producing negative expectancy for over 20 years, do you understand probability and statistics?

 

it took me 20 years to understand this.
you guys still do not know the importance of it

 

that is your strategy.

and all other strategies are shit. you are a genius.

the only one with a strategy.

 

Did you beat my coin flip ?