Yeah, I am not trying to take anything away from him. Because cannot argue with the PnL. But I tend to agree. I would be willing to bet money that the biggest edge here is position sizing and time. I am sure for others it's different, but for me the most impressive thing that he was able to attain 800k liquid capital just to use purely for trading. A very common theme with profitable traders is that they have other businesses with good cash flow or a very high earning job, that allows them both a mental edge (more ease of mind) and they can avoid a lot of the traps set by larger players, simply by not having to have such a tight stop. So, they can still generate good income (relative to what it takes for most people to be comfortable and happy) while taking much less risk. Personally have never met a successful trader who started with small amount of capital and organically grew it. I am sure they exist, but are in the extreme minority. To be more clear the reason I say position sizing and time is the edge is this question: How many strategies could you make that are profitable given a 300 point(potentially more) stop loss? I know for a fact I could design a lot of them and that also would perfectly explain as to why he has hundreds of strategies. Again he clearly seems very hard working, intelligent and smart. He's generating strong monthly income. For me personally though things just aren't adding up at all to his strategies being the bigger edge (although he certainly doesn't have to prove that to me I understand).
Yes you cant argue with the PnL but there does seem to be a lot of overtrading going on. Making 50K on 800K is the same return as making 5K on 80K. Im not sure you need 450 strategies to make that kind of return. But if it is working for the OP he should stick with it and make hay while the sun shines.
It's highly questionable what at all is going on. Hundreds of strategies, OP does not even understand himself what is really going on and what the intent and logic of each strategy really is. Then Twitter on, Twitter off. I have learned to take any pnl claims with a huge pinch of salt especially when the full range of all trades is not provided, when a lot of issues are purposely obfuscated, and that not just to hide IP. I am at this point not even sure what the purpose of the thread is. Maybe I have my blindfolds on? Hard to have any meaningful discussion or exchange when zero information is provided other than some entries and exits in real time that can hardly be reconciled. But hey if it works then it works for him. Just can't see the benefit to the rest. We reached Page 9 and still nobody is any the wiser.
I do believe he is making these profits though. It's incredibly reasonable returns given the account size. I mean he made as low as 7.4k in November off a 800k account. That's like making $46.25 on a 5k account.... you would have to capture 23.25 MNQ points net in a month. Also, January was a losing month (not a coincidence of course that it corresponds with the market tanking). It all makes sense. Also, believe he truly is bored, so likely wanted to create a thread for fun and to spark some conversation. Once you have money, in means nothing to you, so majority of people need to start looking in other places and directions for meaning and happiness. All in all I think we're getting exactly what it looked like on face value. (Minus the disagreements some people have regarding what his edge is and minus I don't think he's really bored enough to help people in a substantial way). Overall I give the thread a 7 out of 10 personally. He seems like a nice, reasonable and respectable guy and at least he is making money, I've seen way worst threads.
75% p/a return. Yes it is doable, but i wouldn't call it 'incredibly reasonable'. The words that come to my mind are 'incredibly difficult'.
Yeah, that's fair I understand what you're saying. Think it really depends on what metric we're using as well though. Maybe I am missing something but to me looks like roughly 14.25% return on money in 5 months right? If we're speaking of skilled day traders, 2.85% a month really is pretty reasonable expectations.
Running ai based strategies I tend to agree. What I find hard to fathom is how someone would not know what his strategies are actually doing. It would bestow zero confidence in me during the unavoidable drawdowns. The absolute dollar amount is rather irrelevant in this context. A 20% annualized return appears to be a reflection of prudent risk management, not a 75% return.
According to his last week pnl that looks more like 60% annualized return. No matter how you argue about it that is often a reflection of elevated risk that must be assumed to generate such returns. Also, OP claimed that he steadfastly believes his trades cannot be re-engineered to derive knowledge of his IP (which is most often actually not true according to many quant traders at hedge funds) but he turned the Twitter feed off only after a few days despite others saying it adds value. I myself could not reconcile the pnl from the seemingly random entries and exits. Maybe others could...
I was basing the 75% p/a return on the 50K a month 'aim' in the thread title. (600K a year on a 800K account, ignoring any compounding) Volatility in the last couple of months is very elevated. It is hard to draw any conclusions. The OP could be a genius, or the markets could just be very kind at the moment. Long may this volatility continue, there is nothing worse than slow markets for directional traders.
Well, nobody really knows what edge his strategies exploit. For mean reversion, directional moves are a killer.