Here's the link to the discussion about how I manage my capital. Updated figures with this mornings withdrawal included; My drawdown is zero My notional capital is 400 - 0 = 400k My risk target is 25% * 400k = 100k My account value is 401k My accumulated profits are 782K. No particular milestone, but happens to be just over a million bucks. Rob
Down about 7.0% today (that number swings wildly each second). 40in20out is down 7.9% today. How are you all doing?
yes, looks like everything reverted, oil and gold are down, stocks are up, something shifted in the world I guess..
7% down here. I'll say this is karma for me bragging about missing that carnage at the end of November. Interesting thing is that 3/4 of the loss are from single long heating oil contract. Yep, I'm that unlucky to be long still. Fun fact - I introduced DO on Monday. My system before that got me out of HO on Friday due to the increased vol, but DO said go long, so I let the system go. I'm thinking of asking for my money back, but my supplier of DO algorithms is a retired solo bloke just outside of London, pretty sure I'm not getting anything That's ok though, I know these days happen, yesterday was 4.6% up day, that makes this easier to stomach. Still up about 8.5% YTD. I am wondering why though, why this reversal. I haven't seen anything in the news to warrant this.
You ain't blaming the algo buddy, it's got an alibi. DO sold me out of heating oil on Friday, again due to increased vol. Code: instrument_code strategy_name trade parent_reference_price parent_limit_price mid_price side_price offside_price limit_price filled_price delay bid_ask execution versus_limit versus_parent_limit total_trading order_id 32003 HEATOIL dynamic_TF_carry [-1] 3.182 None 3.2256 3.2249 3.2263 None 3.2249 0.0436 -0.0007 -0 NaN NaN -0.0007 I note in passing that Heating oil is still higher than that price, so maybe not the best decision... In all seriousness, I obviously still had other energy risk (mini WTI and last day Brent) on which got me in a fair amount of hot water, although not as much. I'm guessing that your system didn't see a better way of maintaining the energy long. Path dependence, slightly different signals or instruments, maybe different capital.... could be anything. If it was a small capital / big contract size problem then I wonder if the risk limit I use to limit notional exposure on a single contract (described here https://qoppac.blogspot.com/2022/02/exogenous-risk-overlay-take-two.html) would have helped (see from 'Note that it's still possible for instruments to exceed the leverage limit, but this is dealt with by the off line hard position limits' onwards). A piece of advice; once you trust your new system, stop monitoring your old one. It's a waste of time and regretful tears. Rob
This is next up on my list! I'm obviously joking, I'm pretty happy with the DO stuff, backtests are looking great and I should give it more than 2 days to make judgements I do have an interesting implementation that I wanted to write about. I don't run pysystemtrade, but I "hook into" it for some behavior, DO computation being one. Having done this, I think now that the easier path would have been to just implement a pysystemtrade data source for my data store, but I wanted to fully understand it so I use everything from my system, compute all the inputs, and call into objectiveFunctionForGreedy for actual optimization. I also run Python 3.10, so don't ask me how I'm plugging that in
Hi GAT, Are the daily figures in the above post actual account figures, or a back test or a combination of both?
I think this would've saved me yesterday, going to experiment with something similar. Although it probably would've prevent the initial opening of my Silver long which went completely in my face. I realised I had too risk on by holding the contract when the account madly increased on Tuesday, but if it's going in your favour it's hard to switch it off, then of course it turned around and I gave it all back. It was a bitter slice of humble pie.