My real positions in futures last for less than five minutes on average... And I wont reveal any of my swing positions because that increases trade emotion. Best to keep your real positions in the market secret.
Will probably re-establish long position if there is a straight market drop of 25-30 points from todays highs without any bounce... Within the same daily sell cycle. Or after a bounce to 1340-50 then new lows vs this swing again with a new daily cycle signal. If the market can't find any real buyers on lifts they can always gap it up, but that is a losing proposition unless there is enough intraday short positions to trap and panic. A lot depends upon the EU meetings and how they catalyze a market reaction Thursday. Lets get this party started! Everyone knows the EU is going to break up and collapse at some point. It's just that everyone including me is hopeful it's still around a year out... There is a potential for a weekly high conviction long coming up soon. It's out there somewhere around 2-3 weeks I estimate though. Once that sets up the bottoms on the daily chart will be High Conviction Longs.
For some reason my market stats data feed went bad today... When I look at the $Tick I am like... "Wtf, is the market crashing?" Then I look at price and am like "Hmmm... Eh, pattern looks normal." Not sure whats going on... That decision to cut longs above 1320 was based somewhat upon $Tick... And I just realized the numbers on the $Tick are probably all incorrect...
Yea... My $Tick data was way off... Just cross checked with FSC data. The broad market trend actually confirmed that move. Was no reason to take it off so soon. I should consider watching more data feeds... Getting totally incorrect market stats data occurs far too often... Comical... My data feed heads to -1700 and lower $Tick while the proper data is at +1500... Uhhh.... I may have to subscribe to that $200/month feed from DTN again. Oh well, you get what you pay for. Without my wave counts I tell you that $Tick would have gotten me short squeezed in futures today...
Review of the 15m-Hourly chart... Picked the wrong top to exit Trades because of bad tick data... Should been the next 15m exit signal, not the first set... Meh.
That trade setup shot much higher than expected... It was a wildcard though with the EU meetings. My original call was perfect. We pulled back into Thursday. Then the wildcard news hit. Quoting one of my first posts: "If I get the proper technical signal and price level to put on this LC (Low Conviction) long it only has until Wednesday afternoon to perform." That was the only predictable trade. The long off the accumulation zone where professionals where buying Monday/Tuesday to topping out Wednesday. Low Conviction swing short setup coming up around next Tuesday/Wednesday. Need one more daily rally cycle after this one for a Medium/High conviction short though. Only a few swing setups come around per month... That's why I would die of boredom without futures daytrading... I am expecting this coming short setup somewhere around 1380-90 SPX... We shall see where we reach Tuesday... In my real accounts I am real conservative when it comes to swing. Even if I see a perfect HC-L or HC-S I play it for a few days at most.
Yea right... Full tilt long into a Low conviction long like we got this week? Those are for the MC's and HC's... Honestly... That whole EU meeting thing was like Flip a coin. We could have broken either way there. The odds were up though. I may not update this swing journal very much. Too busy. Gotta focus on daytrading futures while the trading is good before the next crash. I'm starting to realize all you need for swing trading is a pen and notepad to record days in trends and price levels... And a news event calendar. George Taylor knew his stuff... Didn't require any advanced technicals.
The number of acceptable odds daily trade setups the market averages per month is 3... The weekly trade setups are around 3 per six months. The monthly setups come around once a year... And the warren buffet buy-buy-buy crash events for investors to buy come around once every three to five years it seems like nowadays. This rally we have right now isn't going to be very solid because we didn't have enough fear before it. Without solid fear to suppress demand temporarily and push down prices there isn't room for major market gains. Not gonna push out a 300 point rally off a small consolidation move like recently... Of course if Bernanke went wild and started QE3... Then the demand can soar far beyond any sort of fundamentals in the market. With everyone so used to QE rallies... If Bernanke announced QE3 everyone might just be like... $#*$ it... Lets just limit this market up 100 points a day until we reach the target! LoL...
Oh, and another neat thing... I managed to drop my confirmation indicator noise level way way down... So it shows the cycles perfectly cleanly. And it's still at one candle lag. Woot... Actually, it may lag less. Was going through my math and realized my data inputs could be far improved from HLC, HL, or a balanced combination of HCL and Close like I was using... Get programming suckers. I never trade off the bottom indicator. Just for wave counts. You should be in the trade at the accumulation/distribution price levels with the professionals at the tops/bottoms before the move starts to have the best odds.