I decided to start a journal with my OptionsHouse virtual account for pure entertainment. Please no trolls. First trade entry will be a light low conviction long entered midday Monday or early Tuesday. I will post when the virtual trade is made. Expected SPX price at trade 1300-1315. Later in the week I will try to catch a high conviction short as it sets up. Should be a HC-S setup appearing... We shall see. The monday/tuesday long is definitely a LC. Starting balance of OH virtual account: $5000 I will not disclose my non-virtual trading account positions. Sorry! Trading rules... Profits at 2-4 days. 1 Month spy options for HC setups. 2 Month spy options for MC setups. 2 Month spy options for LC setups. 1 OTM for HC and MC. ATM for LC. Trades held too long cut after reverse engulf day if still profitable otherwise held for another trade cycle. Chart made with: SierraChart with TD Ameritrade data feed (Not affiliated.) Indicators: Proprietary.
I got a hunch it's going to be a wild week... Not placing any non-virtual swing positions this week because I got a bad feeling Angela Merkel is going to send global markets into a major tailspin on Thursday as she and Germany stubbornly hold their ground against buying up Italy and Spain's debt... Anyone holding positions into Wednesday night is one crazy gambler... The Germans need to get their act together and say $*#* Spain, Italy, and Greece and kick the bums out and just take the losses like a boss!!! Yes... I am hoping for a major panic cycle so we can put in a solid bottom for a few months... Germany will step in just like Ben Bernanke if they see Global panic... The current stability gives them some leeway to reject Spain and Italys pleas for more free bailouts. If I get the proper technical signal and price level to put on this LC (Low Conviction) long it only has until Wednesday afternoon to perform.
Were within the buying price range... 1300-1315. I'm looking to tomorrow morning as the swing point though. Little too much downward momentum on this move... A Low Conviction long needs to be timed perfect, because if it isn't it will be stuck for another 100 point drop once Merkel opens her mouth and says "screw the euro..."
SPY Aug 12 131.00 call purchased. $3.96 / Market Target price area > 1340. Time for trade to perform > Wednesday afternoon. Trade Conviction > Low Conviction. Lower odds long trade than I would ever take with real $$... But, it's the only thing I see this week so far. Upside of around thirty points max estimated by Wednesday with a potential downside of 100-200 points by Friday if held through Merkel breaking up the EU. Hah...
+1 I'd like to direct readers to one of RangeTrader's best: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=244674 He must be tired of winning all the time.
Considering Merkel's position is in the market... why expect a massive reaction on Thursday? You're pretty new at this, right?
Closing out positions on push above 1320. Slight profit on the Aug 131 Calls. $4.28 / Limit. The odds of seeing the SPX through yesterdays gap today to around 1335 are declining because too much time is passing... I had my support/resistance entry levels calculated out incorrectly yesterday on my entry too. Why do try to do longs when the market is in a two to three week selloff cycle anyway?