Discussion in 'Stocks' started by hevaystos, Jul 12, 2011.

  1. hevaystos




    “When it comes to critical stages, play it classical”. The Daily chart is full of classical works; we have drawn several trend lines, sloping and horizontal, and as we put the pieces together, the picture became very clear and it seems also that we have, finally, solved the puzzle. The result is that: the odds are in the favor off a Major Topping Pattern.

    Yes, we doubt that a Major Head-and-Shoulders or a Multiple Top reversal pattern is taking place, but what we are talking about here is just probability which may, or may not, materialize. The structure is talking on its own; the index treats the 6,000/6,100 range as an unbreakable zone; bulls failed in several attempts to carry the index over this range. The last attempt was eye-catching; the rally was violent and strong but as it approached this structure zone, a bearish reversal candle pattern, Bearish Engulfing, has materialized. As a result, the weight of evidences, Bearish Candle pattern @ major resistance zone, are in the favor of, at least, a forth decline to the major rising blue trend line (a possible Neckline).

    In brief, the daily chart shows two important manifestations; a failure, again, to attain the major resistance zone and a short-term bearish reversal candle pattern. The weekly chart shows clearly the mentioned possible reversal pattern; the Head-and-Shoulders pattern. Any bearish pattern in weekly or monthly chart carries tremendous major implications. So, seeing a bearish reversal candle pattern, Shooting Star, adds fuel to the bearish picture and increases the odds that a major topping pattern is taking place.

    “Don’t Jump the Gun”. The prospected reversal will take place “Only” after a decisive down-breakout below the mentioned rising blue thick line, not before. We suppose that you, desperately, want to be early in your call, but being early means that you are increasing the odds of whipsaws.

    Ramy Rashad, CMT