Not my bot. The odds is just what i think it is fair based on today's situation. U can disagree then u can buy the over side or better yet, come up with ur own odds, so we can at least have a market for this type of experiment.
Well today has reached my threshold, the point where I had mentally decided if the loss reached I would pull the plug. So... looks like its time to pull out... Good news is I have entered the forward testing period with several new strategies..... so one of them will be going live in a few weeks. Today -$429 Week to Date: -$1412 Since going live: -$4297 Total days: 20 Avg per day: -$214.85 Up Days: 9 Down Days: 11
btw just noticed today and yesterday were glitches, didn't check the backtest either day until now.. and the results DID Not match.... backtest shows complety different entry/exit areas.... so somethign is amiss in the software.... this is the only times i've seen this since being live so doesnt explain everything, only that there is a glitch that i need to work on before next live venture
hmmm ... This problem seems to indicate that the saved data (assuming you collect it and replay it for the bot) is not the same data the bot saw when the data was live. Inaccurate timestamps?
Why pull the plug?!?! Are you kidding me. Just switch the buy and sell triggers. A bad bot is one that breaks even. A great bot has huge consistent gains or losses.
Frost - good luck with the new bot(s) and maybe one day you'll decide to trade for yourself and not rely on a computer program to do it for you. This was an expensive lesson in a short period of time. The other post has an idea though - could you just flip-flop it? Do the opposite of whatever you programmed... Just an idea.
What a remarkable example of human behavior... For anyone else (besides Frostengine) who might be interested in trying this.. It is unlikely that a retail trader, even one with programming skills, can write a rule set that will profit consistently on the S&P contract...There are no commercially available systems that can do it, and I have never seen or heard of a retail trader who pulled it off. The issues are simple, but deceptive.. First retail traders lack the skills to model the contract accurately. That is to say, they don't understand how to start, what to model, and how to derive a rule set. Second, again (sorry retail traders) most do not have the risk management skills. Its not about avoiding risk, its about limiting exposure to it, while maintaining a presence in the market... Finally, the few systems that do work need big capitalization and are multi-level systems (referring to time frame here) that take advantage of the principle of diversification. I don't know the system Frostengine has built, don't know him, or his skill set, but after a lot of years in the markets, observing skilled pros at work who DO know how to approach this problem, I can tell you that this unfortunate loss of 4k was predictable but not preventable..Its just human nature to overvalue our skills, until the market shows you just where you stand...Sorry to see it happen... And apparently instead of learning the real lesson, he is going to try it again.. I hope his day job makes a lot of money.. Steve
Flip-flop would definitely make the system he has even more curve-fitted. Have you or the other guy ever develop trading models?