The method gives signals when it gives them.. sometimes like this morning it happens to be countertrend... but this is not "always" the case..... Needless to say, I violated my 3 losses in a day rule.. I started thinking.. why stop after 3 losses.. if I believe that my system works no reason to stop it just because it hit a small down streak... I have been wrestling with this issue all morning.... the 3 losses rule was completly arbitrary, had no basis for making that rule other than it seemed liek a good idea.... Any opions on if I should use such a rule or not? I can see both pros and cons to using such a rule, but cant seem to make a decision... Here are my results for a few of my new trades I have taken today: - 5 pts + 10 pts + 6 pts currently down only -$45 after comissions on the day. Maybe I should start looking at the next time frame up from my charts and use a moving average to determine the trend and not take trades that go against that trend?
Instead of a 3 trades rule, why not use a money rule. Keep it prudent though... No more than 2% (or whatever is prudent to you) of your portfolio value. Osorico
Don't try and tailor your system based on the current day. If you know you an edge, it will be on some days and not on others. If people tell you that they only have days that there edge works, run the other way because there probably trying to sell you some thing. If try and chase every day's trading action, your system will always be a step behind and you will not be comfortable with it. Confidence is the name of this game, not systems.
I understand your dilemma; however, don't get into the habit of making significant changes to your system just because you are having a bad day.
Good advice... I am pretty bad at trying to change my system just because its having a bad day.. I do that everytime..... I think I should leave it alone and continue to trade it as is..... I am still net profitable using this method so no reason to change it because of one bad day.. need to give this method at least a month first and a few hundred trades.... I like the idea of using a money cut off such as 2% of my portfolio value... that makes more sense than 3 bad trades....
Frost, Seriously, you need to be prudent doing this. Either a fixed amout like $100 or the portfolio %. The problem you may have with this is your current W/L money ratio is BARELY 1:1. Please keep that in mind. Regardless, if you go with a money rule, stick with it. And don't change it everyday. Only once a week or less!! And if on any given day it get hits after 1 trade or 25 trades, you are done for the day, NO SECOND CHANCE! (like today :eek: ) Cheers
+11p and still in negative because of commission? shopping for lower comm will also help to reduce your risk.
nkhoi, that was just an update on my trades since earlier this morning, i had about -15 pts in losses before that post was made....
Made 2 more trades now: -5 pts +10 pts I am keeping my stops at their average around 5 pts, but am trying to let my winning trades go a little further to better help my risk/reward ratio. I think the fact I am letting them go a little longer may be contributing to my win% being signifcantly lower today. My signals may just be "that bad" today as it seems a lot of them are going against me fairly quickly... maybe only 1 or 2 of the losses today would have been small winners if I had pulled the trigger faster like I had been doing... Still got work to do...but I am enjoying the structure of having a plan.. Net for day -$29
Getting really frustrated, I have an uncanny ability to place my stop at exactly the high or low of a move that goes against me.. its like the second it hits my stop it moves where I thought it would go...... got so frustrated I tried to get revenge back on a trade twice just now and cost me a lot of pts.... started out with a -6 pts trade.. then I entered back in on revenge and lost another -6 pts, then entered again and lost -8 pts..... I'm fed up with my stops being hit like that... its amazing...