Exactly. After 10 am EST, it was nearly straight down. It can't get, and it won't get much better than this unless we go nuclear ala October 1987. Astute traders who went short at 10 am were "up" at least $700 per contract by the close.
So astute traders sell the high of the day and buy back at the low. Guess I'll never be an astute trader...
The point is to take a consistent pattern of action when trading which (over time) will yield positive results. If you've been following the thread, you'll see that Frosty's Bot doesn't DO THAT. For anyone who took the short trade early today and held it, they profited. JJ
OK, here's another idea. Every day that the Bot trades, pull-up a chart and reviw the day's performance. Eventually you will develop an eye for the trading patterns that the chart makes which can yield a high amount of successful trades (it's called having positive expectation)[i/]. Once you begin to see them, you can begin to code them ... but backtesting strategies just for the sake of backtesting is IMHO useless. Regards, JJ edit: Not for nothing, I know it is far from easy. I've spent 3 solid years looking at charts everyday and then reviewing everything multiple times during the weekend, and I'm still focusing on the fact that I just have to take my trades and trust my knowledge.
Here's a chart setup based on criteria given by ProfLogic over at the constant tick size trading thread. Why do people use odd sized Tic Charts (the started by fearless9, actually) The chart references the volume sizes as given by the Prof on page 33 of the thread. Maybe this'll help. Heck, while you're at, why don't you give the thread a read, play around with it, see what you can come up with. Best Regards, JJ
Lost -$1350 today.... I think that is it... I am calling it quits and reevaluating..... I have enough equity left to make another attempt at some point in the future, but I have to be 100% sure next time..... I hope everyone got something out of this journal....
It is all a process. I lost way more than that learning to trade er2 lol.... I still do as long as you find ways to improve. I will reiterate what I said before, find characteristics of these huge trending days and try and work them into your system since these are the days a bot can make decent money for you. Good Luck
Does this sound familiar ? ER2 futures had a repeat performance of last week's big move. And strangely, it did get better....for those short after 10 am or so. I glad you are pulling the plug.
sad to hear about the dd. i hope you keep modifying the system and posting your paper trading performance on this thread.
walter, Yes I will continue to modify the system, and will continue posting PL. The PL will now just be from the IB paper account and not my live account..... I may also post some design information at some point to get a discussion going about various strategies..... but haven't decided what direction I am going to go with that yet..