Thanks for your pointed and extremely relevant comments on the subject matter. I'm sure Frost has been able to take your concrete suggestions and make real-time modifications to his system which show a rapid change in his bottom-line PnL. *** Back to the story. Frost doesn't need to reveal anymore of his system than he already has, as wj mentioned, it's not even relevant to the topic of discussion. His system trades a specific time-price pattern, which is puurty obvious, which according to his backtesting, probably sets-up about 8 (or more) times a month (20 to 22 day trading period), I haven't been watching for this particular pattern, so I don't know, it may setup more often. This "month" (actually, 22 day trading period, which is about a month), it has only delivered about 4 times (3 of which Frost was actually able to capitalize on), and one of those times being an out performer. Short of modifying this particular pattern, Frost can try out new time-price patterns, and or take measures to try to stay out of the chop, which I fully admit is difficult, and certainly not doable more than about 30%-60% of the time (depending on the logic and methodology used), but that difference can make a lot in the overall profitability of the system. There is also the option of trading multiple contracts on securities with lower risk parameters, I am obviously a big fan of this approach, but hey, it's Frost's bot. Regards, JJ
The bot is currently up $450 and is short...... I am tempted to exit this trade, just because it made so much.. but I need to resist this urge.. i just know +450 puts the bot net positive thus far...
I very stupidly covered the position...... the market has since moved another +$100 in my favor.... this is probalbly one of those +1000 days, and I may have just screwed it up for myself... but I am very happy that the past few days the bot has been more in sync with the market THUS far, long day left PS: Make that now over +$220 more in favor...OUCH, why did I interfere with the bot.. must learn DO NOT TOUCH the bot!
Just a suggestion from someone facing similar issues, but I think you were too lenient with yourself on this point earlier on. It is either a mechanical system or it isn't. As you say, do not touch the bot. Good luck.
waxwing, You are right......My intentions are to have a fully automated trading bot.... with that in mind I MUST not allow myself to EVER exit a trade.. only situations I see that as an option is when the bot makes a trade in error, some sort of glitch, which hasn't happened yet..... OR the bot enters a trade and then some big news thing happens.. a war.. assasination.. terriorst..... something then it would be a good idea to exit....... but other than those sitatuations I must stick to the rules of not touching it
As a matter of interest, when would the bot have closed the short, and would it have gone long by now?
Jlc, I am unaware of exactly where it would have exited, once I make a change the bot's thinking changes.... I will not know the answer to that until I run a backtest on today after the close.... However, It did enter another short sometime after I manually closed it, and that short lost a little bit of money and it reversed long at 792.50 on the er2. Which is 2 pts lower than where I manually exited.. thefore it would more than likely have pocked $200 more than it did had I not interfered
I am starting to get a little worried about this long position its in...... I need to just step away and not look at it, and hope it ends the day positive ... wish I woudln't have tampered earlier and it woudl be a lot more positive with a lot more cushion right now...
#1 Rule - do not touch the bot. Today for us there was a position where the bot was up $800 and I almost covered because it's been really slow the past 2 weeks and I wanted a big winner. As of right now it's over $1600 in our favour. Time and again I am proven that I know nothing and the machine knows all. Think of it like a back seat driver. That person is you, shouting commands at the person in the drivers seat (bot) "Go faster!! Go slower!! Watch that turn!! Look out for that car!!!" when really you have no idea what's going on.
johnnyman, Good point... I do feel like that sometimes.... I sucked as a discretionary trader, and my bot seems to be a lot better trader than I ever was, so why try and give it directions.... just let the bot do it's thing. With that said, the bot should liquidate soon, and i'll have today's total.. and then in 30 min i'll backtest the day adn see what I SHOULD have made....