I've enclosed an update analysis of the trades in an excel spreadsheet, along with the trades which I took based on my own analysis of the markets (chart.xls and pix 1 through 5). Most of my trades are based on the ES, if I gon't get the setup I like, I look to the YM. *** What this analysis tells me is that, first of all, succeeding at intra-day of the indices is very difficult, even for a human that is processing the information, you have to be very disciplined and look at the long term picture. I always trade with the trend (which is why I didn't get a piece of Friday's short squeeze), cut my losses extremely short, try to avoid the chop (good day to catch-up with my Shield DVD collection), and rely on the outsize directional moves to fill my coffers. Attempting to trade intra-day with a Trading Bot, may or maynot be doable, and to succeed, that would have to be a very sophisticated trading machine. *** What occurred to me while I was at the tail-end of the analysis (and really, which is why I put so much effort into these things), is the realization that, while trading intra-day might be too difficult, and ultimately a losing proposition due to commissions, slippage, over-trading and a limited number of trading opportunities for range expansion, using Bots to swing trade is very likely to succeed for all of the above listed reasons. Best Regards, Jimmy Jam
12/08/06 - Early Drop, with a Rise to Sell-off (either a short squeeze or market was taken back-up to allow the Longs an opportunity to liquidate their positions).
Position trading chart (ER2 is the indicie listed, but concept is applicable to anything that trades, with particular attention to the following indices): Indices YM, ES Interest Rate TY, ZN, ZB Metals ZG Energy QM, etc.
Looks like I'm switching it up yet again.. tomorrow I will be moving to method #3 ........ I am probably going to end up kicking myself eventually for switching it up so much... but this strategy seems more solid at the moment so I am switching to it.....
whats the reasons behind the newest switch? is it just a gut feeling about the new system or were the backtests significantly better?