Lost -$263 today.... just because the market was in an obvious downtrend doesn't mean any long position is wrong in this case..... a lot of the bigger gains the bot makes comes after the market is in a strong trend one way and then goes the other..... so that filter does not always help the overall expectancy.... However, I decided not to jump the gun too much until probablly after this week. Will let the week play out and see where I stand before making any big changes
> Lost -$263 today.... just because the market was in an obvious > downtrend doesn't mean any long position is wrong in this case You need to stop autotrading and seriously learn how to successfully trade the markets by your own hand FIRST. Anyone with 6-12 months of discretionary trading under their belts could have picked up on just how strong the downtrend was going to be well within the first hour of the trading day. It's very surreal what you're trying to accomplish. It's like you're trying to experience what it's like to live in Paris without ever physically being there. You're guessing at what it might be like instead of knowing what it IS like. But you're not going to listen to me. The only thing you're going to understand is a blown-out futures account. In the end, that is the only sure thing to humble anyone. I'm not trying to be mean. I'm trying to get you to realize that this is the sequence to having a successful ATS: 1. Become a successful futures trader by your own hand. 2. Teach the computer to do what you can do in real-time successfully. This is you: An unsuccessful futures trader trying to teach a computer how to trade the markets successfully. What is wrong with this picture? BTW, all you guys on this thread who have turned to an ATS throwing technical analysis spaghetti-against-the-wall approach to trading who can't face a futures market in real-time just because you're "scared" had better live up to the fact that that's a normal part of your evolution to becoming a seasoned trader. I can't read this thread anymore. It's like I'm watching a car sliding in slow motion on black ice into an on-coming Mack truck and there's nothing I can do to stop the inevitable.
<i>"You need to stop autotrading and seriously learn how to successfully trade the markets by your own hand FIRST. Anyone with 6-12 months of discretionary trading under their belts could have picked up on just how strong the downtrend was going to be well within the first hour of the trading day. It's very surreal what you're trying to accomplish. It's like you're trying to experience what it's like to live in Paris without ever physically being there. You're guessing at what it might be like instead of knowing what it IS like."</i> That is hands down one of the most point-blank posts I've yet to read here. 100% true... every word of it. In order to construct and operate a robust, lasting mechanical system, one must fully understand the market AND the system tools operation thru all market conditions. Too many non-traders attempt to mask inexperience by taking the computerized route. Sadly, that does not work, ever. Until one understands exactly how & why the system operates = behaves in all market conditions, drawdowns cannot be survived. An experience surgeon could build a robotic machine to perform surgeries mechanically. An engineer and/or computer programmer cannot... they must first accquire surgeon skills before ever dreaming of building a mechanical model to replace said skills. It is impossible to know what we do not know. Successful system writers must have discretionary trading skills = experience, that part of the equation cannot be circumvented at all. Hope this helps :>)
I have confidence in what I built, and I know it will be successful..that is all that matters.. Systems do not win all the time and this one is no different... in a few months it will be up plenty of money.. there is absolutely nothing this system has done thus far that is not consistent with past results
<i>"I have confidence in what I built, and I know it will be successful..that is all that matters.."</i> I wish you the absolute best, and nothing less :>)
Give Frosty a break, he admits his system is for countertrend trading. On the rare trend days like today it may not work well but how many times a month do days like today happen?
I did what you're talking about, but I took it to the extreme. I left a job in silicon valley to trade manually at a prop shop. After I learned to trade manually, I did contract work for hedge funds in Manhattan. I got a better picture and I'm writing bots now. The difference, though, is that I have been only committing automatic trades to a paper trading account and have been manually executing signals. I have more slippage as a result, but more direct control over losses. I think, however, you don't need to trade manually to know what the market is doing or understand its direction. You need to know how to trade manually so you know when to spot deep pools of liquidity and know when there's noise and when there's people with real hands playing. This is primarily why I have some reservations with trading on a per-bar or per-candle level and have instead decided to work with raw exchange data, both in terms of level 1 and level 2. Too much information is missing from those chart representations.
<i>"how many times a months do days like today happen?"</i> In years past and again in years to come, days like this will be commonplace. That's all part of adjusting systems for evolving market conditions... nothing is static, systems need to be malleable for survival over long-term periods of time. I have no doubt Frosty can be successful at systems trading, no question there. I do know after having written a vast number of systems that walk-forward periods do not always match any amounts of prior data. I also know that the more understanding a system writer has of the trading process = market behavior, the more likely long-term survival becomes. What any system has done in the past, no matter for how long a period does not project forward into the indefinite future. VIX levels will not remain near 10 forever. The grinding rally will not last forever. Market conditions will change... experienced traders recognize changes sooner and are able to make necessary adjustments when the inevitable occurs.
You might be mistaken. Look at most job postings about ATS programmers or PHD math students going into the finance industry. Iv noticed they often state that prior trading 'knowledge' is a liability. I agree a programmer cannot make a mechanical surgeon without significant medical experience. Trading is nothing like surgery though. Its more akin to poker. Which programmers can most definitely do without significant poker playing experience. Frost. Don't be discouraged by these nay sayers. They have strongly held beliefs that their 'experience' is what gives them the edge and will continue to pay their grocery bill. They can no sooner accept another approach than admit they success is not guaranteed. "Too many non-traders attempt to mask inexperience by taking the computerized route. Sadly, that does not work, ever" I am a fresh graduate from university with a bmath honors comp sci. I have NEVER traded a single thing by hand in my life, nor will I ever. Over a sparse 1.5 months of live testing. My system has traded close to 20million USD notional value with overall profit. A few lessons which I paid for, but were well worth the cost. I view the market as a mathematical system of random variables in a unknown problem space and I base my coding approach on that. I neither need or want a more 'experienced' view of it. Hand trading is a different game. The lessons learnt building and running automated systems are different than the lessons learnt trying to turn a buck guessing which way the market is going to move by hand.
I'd also add to this that what makes a good manual trader is his/her ability to be disciplined and unemotional about trading. That's very difficult to master, and this particular aspect of trading is critically important, according to what I've read in various books and what I know from my own experience. With an ATS, you get it for free.