I highlighted trading and trend. It seems pretty obvious to me that the best results when trading intra-day are achieved by trading in-synch with the trend. Regards, JJ
If the ES/ER profitability level are the same, you might want to consider going with the ES contract for the simple fact that multiple days of experiencing losses would generate significantly lower drawdowns on your base capital. This in turn would allow you to stay in the market for a substantially longer period of time (like twice as long). Staying in the market will give your system the time that it needs to generate the profits which would increase your base to a level where you would feel comfortable enough to add-on contracts. Just an idea. Best Regards, JJ edit: When given a choice you should allways trade the contract with the lesser risk, not the contract with the greater reward. Remember ... Trade Risk
notice my use of the verb 'think' rather than 'know'. Am I missing something? How can the ES contract produce the same amount of profit at less risk if the system performs 'about the same' on it. if the gains are about the same. losses should be about the same. In what "way" is trading ES 'less risky' than trading [blink]ER2[/blink]?
Actually the system performs about the same, meaning equity curve is very similar as for as smootheness..... win% is similar, number of trades is similar.. however average win and and average loss are WAY lower... and total profit is about 1/4th that of the ER2.... its still profitable, has a lot less risk..... BTW system is up and running today, looking forward to a great day I hope
Ah. I would tend to agree with JJ then. Whenever I go live with a new automated system I always have a 'live testing' period which I trade with the smallest lot size possible. That way you can finance your testing / learning for a longer period of time if it does'nt go your way off the start. Also in your case, at this stage of the game I would definately opt for the modified system that runs above the original system, reducing drawbacks and profit.
Hey Frosty. I was just reading an indicator thread and ran into a rather interesting graph. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1177069 This method of having no trade zones seems that it would be very useful protecting trend based ATSs from jumping in during choppy times. I am definately going to do some research into this when I get into directional bets. Iv been looking at that graph more, it seems that that system would benefit from a stricter profit taking strait. Does the 'A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush' concept not apply to trading?
I disagree If you mean that when daytrading you should ignore signals against the monthly trend as you have shown. Too many good trades would be missed and you would be trading from only one side for long periods.
If I look at my strategy results over just the past 3 months... the trend during this time has been up up and away clearly.... A VERY strong uptrend....If I ignore the short trades, then my strategy looses nearly 35% of its profits.. so simply going with the trend on the bigger time frame doesn't really help.. in fact it hurts the system
Are you referring to my suggestion? Not trading during choppy vol would not prevent you from taking short trends which go against the longterm trend, given that the short trend has enough movement behind it.