What the hell has been going on here? Anyone have any guesses. Seems to have gone crazy recently on no news.
u/z corn is tightening because farmers refuse to sell grain and end users are buying up on this price break hence causing a tightening basis and a tightening spread. Absolutely ridiculous why its happening but as long as farmers hold tight that spread will stay tight. However I believe the puke point for farmers is after the wednesday report, they are banking on that as their last hope for a rally in flat price but regardless of if they get the rally or not they will sell grain (have to move a huge old crop carry over in order to take on a record crop) u/z wheat blowing up lately because everybody and their mother is short, thats the only reason. Also I would have to say there is some government presence or CME Group itself pushing in the spread so they don't have the CFTC on their ass and the world doesn't realize that the contract is broken, but thats just a conspiracy theory.
Somebody moved the sep corn spreads a ton today right around the close, very rarely will you see action like that in an extremely well supplied market like corn.
Anybody got a view on corn? I reckon with the USD sliding and with crude likely to start moving upwards, corn might just do the same like what happened at the last run up to $7. Anybody got a different view otherwise?
I don't trade much directional but I can tell you on a pop up to 3.60 or 3.70 corn I am selling all I possibly can. There is a record crop, my uncle knows some guys in IA that got 300 bushel corn. No lie, this thing barring any kind of horrible frost doesn't have much upside potential. The carry is as tough as I've ever seen it, and we could easily get to 2.75 in the futs imo. Play accordingly.