From scalpers to Warren Buffett, all traders are clueless?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by crgarcia, Jul 6, 2007.

  1. KO don't go up anymore? The MBA guys asked the same thing, watch him reply in the video, then you will understand. For banks, he owns WFC, STI and USB. I am not sure exactly for what reasons, but one thing is for sure: he's not after dividends. Again, it's in the video. He doesn't change around positions a lot. He will take new 2-3 new positions a year that he researched well enough to hold for 20-30 years. You won't want to do that with tech companies because many of the NASDAQ constituents won't be listed in 30 years.

    This guy is not a one hit wonder. This guy is as real as it gets and he made money in all markets. In the 60s and 70s where the indexes went nowhere and lots of investors were wiped out, in the huge 80s bullmarket with the 87 crash, in the 90s bubble and in the 2000s of today which saw a terrible bear market wiping out billions in wealth.

    You don't have to believe or follow or even become a fanboy of Buffet, but one thing you should consider is respecting his trackrecord and discipline.
    #31     Jul 8, 2007
  2. The way I understood it in the interview is that he defines "low risk" by looking at more than one possible ways of reaching his investment goal. E.g. company A is undervalued and has assets in oil tankers (I think that's the example he used for one of his past investments). The oil shipping business is terrible and the stocks get trashed. He checked the liquidation value of the tanker fleet and found the stock should have a liquidation value of around 14-15 bucks even at conservative prices for the ships. The stock was trading at 6 bucks.

    So the level of uncertainty (i.e. will the company go bankrupt or not? Will it be able to turn around the existing shipping business?) is extremely high and the markets usually punish uncertainty, sending the stock price down even below "intrinsic" value. But the level of risk (following Pabrai's discipline) was extremely low because of the liquidation value of the assets.

    For anybody interested, here is the Bloomberg video with Pabrai:

    Part I:
    Part II:
    #32     Jul 8, 2007