Similar to how you have defined ranges using a swing h/l of a single or group of bars, that range is also a channel on a faster timeframe. Channels are useful to build envelopes that encapsulates the PV relationship. The envelope one uses is dependent upon the distinctions a trader has built in their mind. That mental picture of the market then determines what a trader is able to perceive based upon their beliefs distilled from experiences. The minimum price points one needs to build a range are two points, with the addition of time then that can get to 3 pts which then gives a vector or simply directionality in the current sentiment. Time is not as supportive in viewing the market as events. The market moves can then be described as going through a sequence of events. These sequences build until they fail thereby describing sentiment changes. For example, all price bar combinations can be reduced to 10 unique forms. Of those ten only two are associated with making money, the others are ‘waiting’ if not in the market or ‘holding’ if one is. Let’s take a reference bar (n-1) and the current bar (n) makes a HL and a HH. The low of n-1 bar is pt1. The low of n bar is pt3. A line connecting these two points is the right trendline. A parallel line connected to the high between these two points is pt2. Price oscillates between these two lines until is doesn’t. The moment price crosses the rtl, it’s a Breakout and the current trend has failed giving birth to a new channel. The moment price closes back within the established channel, then price exposed the event Failed Break Out - FBO. In the above description most can see when TL are crossed but the part that most do not see is the mental picture of an archetypal trend. All trends fail, that is what gives rise to cyclic and periodic price fluctuations. The moment a trend fails is the moment that ‘change’ is signaling, this moment is when price can no longer traverse the established boundaries formed by discretionary/mechanical placement of trendlines. This is known as an FTT - Failure to Traverse. By applying the above, then ‘trends’ are ‘cantered’ ranges and R&S levels also have the same orientation.
Hello sstheo, Great work sir, Questions please: 1. To reach your 2% per day goal, as your account grows, your daily profit goals grows, do you plan to trade more frequently to reach daily profit goals or increase contract size to reach daily profit goals? 2. If yes to increase contract size, what is your plan to increase contract size as your daily profit goals increase? 3. If yes to increase contract size, what is your plan to decrease contract size as your daily profit goals decrease? This is the case for possible drawdown that may occur. Thank you,
Micro Gold Margins https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/me...e=MGC§or=METALS&exchange=CMX&pageNumber=1
It sounds like you have a great system. Certainly my goal is to trade without emotion, but it is not always possible. My real goal is to feel the emotion, recognize it for what it is, and GO THE OTHER WAY - but only at the most extreme fear and greed areas.
The goal is to help me, not stress me out. Despite the title of the journal, even 0.5% per day would be satisfactory long term.
Just for perspective and to demonstrate the potential of swing trading, there was a 200+ pt move down in NQ today within 30 minutes. That was a $20k winner on a 5 lot short trade.
It's probably because we're all smoking crack to think that a move in our direction can ever go as far as their potential, so we sell out early.
yep, thats right . hard to leave profit ride in the hopes it will get even bigger very painful to see 1000's disappear because you were 'greedy'