I bet you must respect AIG executives, along with the Investment Bankers who pushed worthless paper. They did create "value" and boy, did they get paid. Obviously, you do not even know what a Sales Trader even does. It is an easy job. Some even say it's boring. And it does not have a high benchmark for intelligence. And I do not guess, but know that no institutional buyer has the patience to deal with a prick like you. LOL! Only idiots & those living in denial did not see what was coming. Which one are you? Wrong, as I personally know fund managers who are doing just fine and actually are gaining interest as the wanna bees, like that fool, are being washed out. The difference is that their operation is not some lame ass strategy which relies primarily on fund inflows. Obviously you would not even have a clue in the matter. Funny, they owe? You must be a believer in slavery. Wow, you must have respect for every overleveraged business that is blowing up. After all, they did something, even if it was an obvious failure. Hey, that means every homebuyer who is now in default is a hero also, they went out there, took a chance and BOUGHT a home with leverage. They took a risk that it will keep going up, hence supporting this wonderful economy based on rising home values. Well congratulations, you get to show your gratitude & respect by bailing them out. Hope that makes you happy. Don't worry, soon you will be paying for his family's WIC benefits too. As a final thought, you will be seeing a lot more of this as the years go by. In fact, this has been happening in the "hot" RE markets over the last years, lucky morons who thought they were all that and are now in debt. The great unveiling is going on, and like the saying goes, "a fool and his money..."
So what is everyone's "backup" plan when they fail at trading? Let's say you even have an edge, but tomorrow, your edge failed and you went on an unluckly streak that completely killed your account. At what point do you throw in the towel? When you empty the account? When you empty your savings? When do you stop and go look for job? And since you have been trading for many years, you don't actually have any resume or marketable experience? Forget about the financial industry, you'll be competing with desperate people with work experience and degrees. You see, lots of people make fun of this guy, but his main and backup plan both failed him. So what is YOUR "backup" plan? Especially those who are overly ambitious.
AIG is one bad business, there are hundreds of other businesses that operate profitably, with prudent risk mgmt and they continue to prosper....again because they add value. The sales trader job is a who you know type business. You have to know someone to even get a lucrative position like that. A few did profit from the economic collapse....we know that you are not one of them.....so yes... afew of the funds that you researched might have profited over the past year, but most did not. Again, a few, though not many, saw this coming. Those who have a job, only have that job because a business owner hired them....it's business that drives this country, get that through your head. As I said before, this guy didn't take crazy risks, the sudden downturn caused both his primary and fallback plan to fail, and as I've said before, given the downturn, it is likely he would be in a very similar situation today without starting the hedgefund business 4 years ago. I think he'll end up on his feet.....winners have a way of doing that.
As far as an edge not working ... simply trade multiple systems, or multiple sytles of trading, plenty of ways to reach the end goal, which is simply to make money consistently. And as far as blowing out is concerned, that's why risk management is one of the most important aspects of trading ... something rarely discussed here. :eek: If someone is trading without a net as it where, it would be prudent for them to have a substantial amount of money in the bank before even leaving serfdom, at least a year's worth of income should hold them steady. Otherwise you're going to have to trade and work at the same time ... something that many people do, one guy who runs a thread around here very successfully, I might add. Just because this guy, or you or anyone else can't come up with a sufficient process for weaning themselves off of the corporate teat and creating a successfull business out of their trading doesn't mean that no one else can.
I say it's reckless to assume that... which is like counting on every day being bright and sunny. Plan for the worst and hope for the best.
In order for something to be obvious it would have to be easily seen and evident to all. I would say that judging by the ups and downs in the market nothing regarding the economy is obvious. Unless of course you are sheer genius but then again no one with that mental capacity would be on here arguing with anyone clearly inferior to themselves. This guy just like (most) of us had no idea what was around the corner. He had no idea how the economy was going to affect his industry. Why would anyone choose to believe that an educated family man would recklessly gamble his life away before considering something more believable? People are not wired to hurt themselves. The point is when your back up plan fails you must enter the job market. If you are specialized in a particular industry that all of a sudden has no demand for your skill (which may be a once in a lifetime occurance) you must succumb to a low paying job. Your standard of living must be reduced as well. He may have been as confident in his hedge fund as some of you are in your trading. If your trading fails I.E. multiple systems, styles or any other form of trading... you may need to enter a market who demands no skills of a (failed) trader. In a zero sum game (for the most part) of course there can only be few making a living off of the losers. No where is it a fact that successful or unsuccessful traders are so inevitably. There is always the possibility of someone right around the corner who will drain your account. A quick ten coin flips produces a one in over a million chance outcome. Most rare events are much more life altering than a coin flip and happen more than you know. The most intelligent, prudent risk takers have been victims of uncertainty leading to harsh criticism. The greatest fools have prospered and been praised for things they had no idea were about to happen. So then tell me, what makes all of the standards, preventative measures, back up plans, etc in the world exempt from misfortune? For some reason people all unconciously choose to believe the even more rare instance where a college educated, successful family man with kids and a great life turns gambler with a complete lack of regard for any consequences whatsoever stopping at nothing short to put his entire net worth on the line. I mean life is made up of preparing for things we weren't prepared for in the past. There is no point in time when (good or) bad things cease to happen to certain people. Life is uncertain and no matter how cautious one may be, even if failure had been reduced to the chance in losing the pick 6... when and if shit happens you can sure as hell bet that the critics with hindsight will be right up your ass stating the "obvious".
To what degree do you plan for the worst? Do you carry an umbrella with you even on days when the weather man calls for a sunny day?
When i was in B school in the 60's, the failure rate for start ups was 70%. Any body got any current numbers?
I was just exaggerating j/k, yes pulled that one out of my ass. If that was the only thing worth commenting on I feel like I got my point across. Thanks.