From 1k to 500k (Deadline: 2017)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by K-Pia, Mar 20, 2016.

  1. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    We were talking about trades.
    But yeah, I don't know what the next day will be.
    That's why I don't make my shopping at the end of day.
    But if you take a look at the S&P it's more 51/49 which is a HUGE difference.
     
    #91     Mar 30, 2016
  2. Crashed

    Crashed

    You'll be fine. There's always something to exploit in any game so you'll be fine with enough practice. I'm still an amateur lol I haven't yet proved myself with real $ but I'll probably start soon this year
     
    #92     Mar 30, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.
  3. userque

    userque

    HUGE? o_O You don't think 51/49 is real-world acceptable as being theoretically 50/50? How many rows/days of data are you looking at. I can run a quick simulation.

    How close would you guess real world coin tosses would fair? 50/50, 49/51, other?

    Have you seen lottery number distributions?

    50/50 doesn't actually mean: always 50/50. There is variance. Coin tosses won't always be HTHTHTHTHT...HTHTHTHT exactly 50/50 no matter when you stop tossing (and you'd have to stop on an even number).
     
    #93     Mar 30, 2016
    Sekiyo likes this.
  4. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    HUGE. Casinos build their fortune on less than 49/51.
     
    #94     Mar 30, 2016
  5. userque

    userque

    Ok.
     
    #95     Mar 30, 2016
  6. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    Ok ? Ok ...
    However that's two completely different world.
    And I am myself not as rich as casinos are.
    One need deep pockets. As you say,
    It's fairly close to 50/50 ...

    Fluctuations are wide in the market,
    They aren't as wild for the casinos.

    If one wants to buy and hold,
    For decades and decades,
    51/49 is an edge ...

    Brownian motion
    Vs
    Stochastich Brownian motion ...

    But yeah, I don't buy and hold.
    A speculator looks for better odds.
    Or at least, a great dynamic expectancy.
     
    #96     Mar 30, 2016
  7. userque

    userque

    Well, my original response was, and still is, regarding your notion that 51/49 in historical data is not, for all meaningful purposes: 50/50.

    Unfortunately, I have no debate regarding how good the edge is, or whether such an edge can be successful. :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2016
    #97     Mar 30, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.
  8. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    100 posts and the journal is a week away from start.... Probably will close after 3 weeks of trading...
     
    #98     Mar 30, 2016
  9. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    I began today.
    With 550$ but fall to 350$.
    Haha. So I'll have to wire $ to continue.
    It'll be done next week.

    Traded after a sleepless night.
    Made mistakes. I especially faded that move.
    During the overnight on the ES. That won't stop me.
     
    #99     Mar 30, 2016
  10. Cyse

    Cyse

    You didn't stick to your plan of starting next week. That must be why you're down. Either way, you've almost cut your capital in half with one days trading. Off to a bad start
     
    #100     Mar 30, 2016