I am stating it on the record now. A recession has already begun, and the composite GDP data (which lags reality) will bear that out by Q2 at the latest. Look at ISM, housing permit, mortgage application and Philly Fed data for last several months. Good luck to everyone here. I hope you all make money hand over fist (truly), whether you're short, long or, if mainly in cash, like me, at least break even with inflation (although I see deflation around the nearest corner) until better buying opportunities present themselves. I am still formulating my short position portfolio, which I personally find much more difficult to do than establish a long one. 20% non-cash is mainly either in real estate or foreign ETFs (Taiwan, Korea and Brazil) now. If I had that 45 foot sailboat I've always wanted, I'd stock up on provisions right now, and take a nice, relaxing cruise through the caribbean for a while. I need all of your help in naming my sailboat. Thanks.