You are, perhaps, confusing average daily range of a particular futures contract (in dollars) with the average PROFIT per day of a particular trading system. If the average daily range of a contract is let's say $600 , then you need to capture the whole range every day to achieve that kind of goal! Do you really think it is realistic?
Your confusion is twofold. 1) daily range is a straight-line end-to-end determination, daily high to daily low or vice versa. What about movement in the middle? Picking tops and bottoms is not on topic. My original post did acknowledge "muted movement". 2) Number of contracts traded.
Considering the relative ambitious if not outlandish goals and the subtle linking to his forum seeking traffic, I do not believe my comments were any less unrealistic. Cherry picking calls, and hindsight trading to be topped off with an end of day edited video of the "profitable" trades, sans the mulligans and do-overs is all to common. Considering he employs a lot of swing / position trading [as evidence by his youtube video], calling trades a head of time shouldn't be a problem for him. Isn't his intent and actions just as important if not more useful than just his "results"? If he is serious then he will, if he isn't he won't. No skin of my nose either way. If he wants people to follow him, which is relatively apparent, my suggestion would ensure that. If he succeeds with his goal, then an audit would be appropriate.
Well it's even worse, because if the average daily range of a contract is $600 then winning the middle of the move will allow you to capture $150 or $200 at most, assuming your system is very good. But let's go back to the basics. Assume you can pick the exact high and low of the day (the whole range). How much money will you be able to make per future contract, on average? And most importantly, what is the average margin requirement for most futures contracts?
I did not and do not see a linking, subtle or otherwise, to another website (perhaps it was moderated out of his post before I read it). If his motives are to do a stunt to gain subscribers, so be it. There are readily available ways for someone to verify one's trades publicly, e.g. profit.ly, tradevue, probably covestor or C2, and there are certain brokers who also allow trade sharing, e.g TDA/TOS. I personally would be satisfied with a screen cap of a blotter or just a periodic PnL such as Neke has been doing. Obviously, if he wishes to keep it interesting and credible, he needs to do something to show he's making or losing ground. But audited statements? Dude, its the internet for crying out loud - what would be the point?
If the average daily range of a contract is let's say $600 , then you need to capture the whole range every day to achieve that kind of goal! Do you really think it is realistic?[/QUOTE] with 2 contracts, you just need 6 ES points = $600
This line of thinking will get you nowhere. If the OP ever gets this done (and frankly, this is not the first 10K to 100K journal at ET, and other than Neke and Slevin, I don't think I've seen anyone else publically journal starting with a little see it thorugh to turning it into a lot - most of these journals turn into what this one has already - a haters/lovers post-fest followed by obscurity - so let's not get our hopes up). And neither of those guys did it thinking along the lines you guys are.
@xelite You are being thick! You are also using an enter, hold, exit, done for the day mentality/strategy. Here's a chart of the lowly YM, $5 per tick, for today. Not a very volatile day after 8am I think we would agree. http://tinypic.com/r/2q9bfp4/8. I see a potential of about 350 ticks POSSIBLE to be captured, PER CONTRACT. The daily range was was well under 200 ticks. Do your own math... capture only 30% of whichever. How many contracts need to be traded in each trade to reach $600 profit. Commish is $4 rt all-in. DAY TRADE MARGIN is $1000 (this is double of what MANY ib's offer/allow INTRADAY)
I am not arguing or disagreeing with you. I used the term Audit to encompass your methods. Blotters are fine for P&L threads, Trade journals should be a bit more informative. I am just so tired of reading self-promoting hindsight threads. No proof is required when someone says Long@XXXX / Stop@YYYY / Target=ZZZZ As opposed to the inevitable, I "did" this and this, I "didn't" do this because I saw something at the last minute on the tape, I have a 93% win rate, never have a losing day, etc... I have much more respect for those who display their shortcomings and how they overcame them. I find it more interesting to see a trade play out than just +$497.00 And yes, his reference to his site was edited out, it was in (parenthesis). There were so many posts deleted/moderated today one would think this was BMT. But that isn't an issue, I prefer a clean forum. [Had you read them all, you would be a bit skeptical as well] If the guy is serious, then I wish him luck. If he can do it in a credible and concise way, so much the better. Anything but another narcissistic hindsight thread.