Friday: Bang! Zoom! To the moon Alice.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dgabriel, Sep 22, 2005.

  1. ***********************************************

    Hurricane season isn't over in 2 weeks. It's over on November 30 (9 weeks away).

    It's true disruption is localized, but the affected area accounts for (I believe) 28% of the country's refining capacity.

    Oil supplies ARE plentiful, it's the supply of refined gasoline that is the issue.
    #11     Sep 23, 2005
  2. Babak


    #12     Sep 23, 2005

  3. any impact to the houston area oil refining infrastructure is not a "localized" event --- any disruption in the U.S. oil refining capability at this point keeps oil/gas prices high and that costs the entire U.S. economy. the CPI/PPI uptrend will be maintained by these type of additional oil refining disruptions --- thus not good for the economy as per the continued higher cost of oil products and the fed's need to maintain interest rate hikes {inflation worries}.

    now a minimal localized supply disruption event would be the fact that 5 million people in the houston and surrounding communities just all went out and filled their vehicles up to get out of dodge {thus most gasoline providers in this area are now all out of gasoline products}.

    the other problem with the houston area if hit hard, is the houston ship channel and all the products that are imported/exported that go through this port --- this is a huge port and those shipping disruptions would just add to the strains now on the U.S. economy.

    with the katrina hit to N.O.'s and now if rita were to hit houston hard would be the equivalent of getting shot in the ass and the balls all in the same month --- that does and would effect the feelings/condition of your entire body. Ouch! :D

    and yes N.O.'s is the ass and houston is the balls --- that should have been easy enough to figure out on your own.
    #13     Sep 23, 2005
  4. TGregg


    #14     Sep 23, 2005
  5. It is still a temporary disruption, it is local in scope, even if it will reverberate, which remains to be seen.

    Unless you think that a hurricane will permanently disrupt the US refining capacity.
    #15     Sep 23, 2005
  6. oil refining disruption and then HIGHER costs of oil/gasoline products ONLY need to be temporary to affect consumer confidence/CPI/PPI numbers. this will cause the perception {and/or reality} that the economy is in a worse situation --- when this happens you have the type of sentiment shifts that can and usually do downturn an economy for periods of time that are not temporary {3 to 6 months}.

    lets see what type of spending consumers will do this christmas if oil/gasoline prices remain very high from more oil refinery disruptions --- perceptions and psychology of the consumer have a greater impact on the health of our economy then most people could imagine --- time will tell.
    #16     Sep 23, 2005
  7. You put yourself out there. did you see orcl, palm and rita before you posted. Even so what was your call based on?
    #17     Sep 23, 2005
  8. Are you kidding? It's right there in my post.

    VIX behavior, p/c ratio, oversold readings...
    #18     Sep 23, 2005
  9. RITA will not be an event anywhere near the severity of Katrina. Unlike, New Orleans, Texas has barrier islands on its coast, the Texas inland is above sea level, flooding will be minimal compared to New Orleans, and only along the coastal barrier communities,
    the population displacement will last only until the storm passes.

    The refineries are built to withstand hurricanes, as are the ports.
    #19     Sep 23, 2005
  10. agpilot


    Even from a non-TA view of stocks, I think storm damage is getting to be old news for the general gas buying public.
    I'll agree with your mkt view. agpilot
    #20     Sep 23, 2005