2/28/19 pre market 8:30 weekly jobless vlais 10 home sales ES V: 1, 728,936 OI:2,508,612(+4,406) R:40 close -15.25 NQ V: 593,422 OI: 195,699(+2,075) R: 128.75 close: -60.5 overview ES watch 2803-2807 big push NQ daily support slightly lower but doesnt seem like it could get to it 4hr - resistance 7348 then 7388 bookmap
Hi, Your trading (trades) do not correlate with the excessive visual representations in your chart. Its one of the reason why you do not show timestamp trade fills in your broker trade execution platform but prefer to dwell only on the visual picture and your analysis while marking charts...showing where you enter the trade on your chart. 1) Surely you have that time to show timestamp trade fills (time of entry/exit) in your broker platform just as easily as all those visual charts ? That opens a wide door for emotional trade decisions and could allow the dreaded "intuition trading" (trading via emotions...causing you to take trades when there's no valid reason for the trade) that often leads to violating your risk:reward or violating your max loss for the day especially after it has put in the back of your mind (cognitve) that you can recover from trade losses that really didn't correlate with your trading plan. Increasing the role of luck in your trading when you're profitable. Also, it doesn't allow you to make good decisions involving an open positions when the trade begins to go against you after they were profitable. This can cause that cognitive decision making process that you're a deer on a road unable to move when you see blinding head lights approaching you...essentially the small loss becomes a big loss or a profitable trade becomes a small losing trade. 2) You trading alone at home or trading while at work ? I've seen you use those statements somewhere via stating...I missed several trades while working. I ask the above question because something in your environment has you extremely hyper focus on the visual charts but your trade decisions does not correlate...one of the main reasons why you use a lot of "explanations via your feelings" in your trade journal. If you're trading from work (your job)...you should not do that. Instead, find designated trading time away from work. Yet, its a slippery slop...some people trade from work because the job forces them to eventually get back to work...closing those losing positions to prevent it from become a devastating trade loss when you feel like you're "stuck" in the losing trade...too much stress just to try to move your fingers to execute your trade decision..way too much trading stress. 3) Also, are the metrics in your backtest results similar to the metrics in your simulator trading results ? I once watch in person a trading pal (we traded in an office) in a losing Emini NQ position...he used "mental stops" instead of real hard stops. The mental stop was usually at -100 dollars. In fact, he was an outspoken advocate of mental stops. He truly believe hard stops was as if he was putting a target on his back. The problem was he was always doing too much hindsight (rear view mirror) chart analysis...had I stayed in the trade it would have turned around and given me a huge winner to turn a losing day into a nice profitable day. Yet, his stats were that only 43% he was able to exit a trade loss at his mental stop. In contrast, when he used real hard stops...he exited a trade loss at the hard stop 100% of the time. Unfortunately, the addiction to the emotional roller coaster during the trade was to great for him to ignore...he was smart enough to admit those emotions during the trade was like a drug fix....he needed it. One day while using mental stops, he had a devastating blow up. 75k down the drain in one day whereas had he used stop/loss protection, trailing stops on profitable positions to ensure he exits at a profit if the trade turned back to his entry...it would have only been a 3k losing day and he would have obviously had another day to trade. That loss of 75k ended his trading career but he walked away with a ton of fascinating pretty looking chart memories. Maybe you just need to reduce (tone down) the visual representation of the price action you're trading because its a know fact that what you see will alter/change your cognitive decision making process in stressful conditions. P.S. I'm a chart user too but too much different types of charts like out of a science fiction movie is going to alter my cognitive decision making process and increases the level of emotional trading. wrbtrader
Im really only looking at 3 charts(the renko - shows a potential directional trade, bookmap for orderflow, numberbars(volume) the plan for me is to trade intraday levels(swings) for futures the daily levels TPO areas are mostly for my options trading. I use hard stops mostly so far the past 2 weeks I've been able to take my losses in futures and stop hopefully i can continue it 1. in futures I'm currently only doing 1-2 trades a day i guess for the review i would be easier to just review the fills. 2. yes I'm trading at while at work(around 10-10:30 or 3:30-4)because I've found that the day has more opportunity(when i trade at night it doesnt really move much)
3/28/19 trading stats and review ES V: 1,186,832 OI: 2,502,797(-5,306) R: 29025 +15.25 NQ V: 446,644 OI: 195,017(+1,269) R: 83 +32.50 -12 ticks NQ kind of random trade although it was in an area where i was looking to short just took it before the actual break of the area after that i thought i could buy the move higher. There really wasnt any trades that would fit my 20 point requirement at the time i was trading so these were pointless trades. 3/28/19 premarket review todays economic data 8:30 am Personal income Feb. 0.3% -0.1% 8:30 am Consumer spending* (new date) Jan. 0.3% -0.5% 8:30 am Core inflation* (new date) Jan. 0.2% 0.2% 9:45 am Chicago PMI March -- 64.7 10 am New home sales* (new date) Feb. 625,000 607,000 10 am Consumer sentiment index (final) March 97.8 97.8 10:30am Robert Kaplan speaks ES appears to be continuing higher although only making 5pts overnight gives hope for shorts trapped. We will see what direction looks better after the reports. Support appears to be 2821 19 absolute low before rethinking long. NQ
3/29/19 review NQ trade -6 ticks because of the push up my first attempt was to go long I was monitoring 31-32 area in ES to get a gauge of when to take the trade in NQ i thought i saw a push higher took the NQ trade essentially bought the swing high. Noted that ES 31 bidders were not holding after massive trading at 32. Attempted to short NQ with a limit twice didnt get filed so rather than chase it and try to short lower I decided its friday im done trading futures.
premarket 4/9/2019 Economic Calendar THIS WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL MEDIAN FORECAST PREVIOUS MONDAY, APRIL 1 8:30 am Retail sales* (new date) Feb. -0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 8:30 am Retail sales ex-autos* (new date) Feb. -0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI (final) March 52.4 -- 53.0 (Feb.) 10 am ISM manufacturing index March 55.3% 54.6% 54.2% 10 am Construction spending Feb. 1.0% -0.1% 2.5% 10 am Business inventories* (new date) Jan. 0.8% -- 0.6% TUESDAY, APRIL 2 8:30 am Durable goods orders* (new date) Feb. -1.6% -2.1% 0.1% 8:30 am Core capex orders* (new date) Feb. -0.1% -- 0.9% Varies Motor vehicle sales March 17.5mln 16.8mln 16.5mln WEDNESDAY, APRIL 3 8:15 am ADP employment report March 129,000 -- 197,000 8:30 am Raphael Bostic, Tom Barkin, Esther George speak 9:45 am Markit services PMI (final) March 55.3 -- 56.0 (Feb.) 10 am I SM nonmanufacturing index March 56.1 58.1% 59.7% 5 pm Neel Kashkari speaks THURSDAY, APRIL 4 8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 3/30 202,000 216,000 212,000 1 pm Loretta Mester speaks FRIDAY, APRIL 5 8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls March 196,000 177,000 33,000 8:30 am Unemployment rate March 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 8:30 am Average hourly earnings March 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 3 pm Consumer credit Feb. $15bln -- $18 bln 3:30 pm Raphael Bostic speaks
NQ daily just shy of my resistance area 7640 looking for a drop doesnt seem as if buyers are present the good news is the dip so far is not that much buyers could still show up in the cash session. NQ V: 358,890 OI: 195,268(+405) ended the day slightly above the IB mostly range bound no break of lower IB NQ low level areas back around consolidation ES V: 1,224,128 OI: 2,554,298(+10,101) ended the day slightly above the IB mostly range bound no break of lower IB ES daily shy of resistance as well ES areas of interest are the typical vwap previous high and low
4/8/19 trade review took 1 trade in NQ yesterday after 3:30 I closed it early because i didnt want to hold overnight 4/9/19 pre market review no significant economic news $ES_F almost tested yesterdays high then slowly grinded higher. V: 980,300 OI: 2,551,752(+961) -> slightly lower volume ES we tested 2900 overnight doesnt seem to want to trade above it same as yesterday on the positive note for bulls its not trading that much lower. Im not really looking for much today. Yesterdays low is about the lowest i would be comfortable seeing ES drop although I would prefer it not dip past YVWAP. NQ V: 333,484 OI: 199,554(+5,176) key area 7600
4/9/19 trade review 1 long trade didnt really feel the price action I monitor $AAPL and again it was going up while $ES_F $NQ_F was lower so i assumed that maybe the indices were lagging so i bought around my support area. immediately was wrong and decided not to take anymore trades. I did start a traderdock demo though i really like the TT NQ V: 389,705 OI: 201,993(+4,103) ES V: 1,183,744 OI: 2,561,791(+12,229) NQ opened lower slight auction around yesterdays swing low failed to go lower then drove up attempting to overtake the gap lower but couldn't. for a second it looked like we absorbed a large sell order but eventually reversed ending around the swing low area. ES consolidated lower ended inside the IB large buyer absorbed toward the end unable to go much lower so maybe buyers still defending that area??