@caacapital What is your "mean" losses on profitable sessions? Do you grade your trades A thru F? like in how many seconds or minutes for each trade to get to breakeven or breakeven plus one tick, how long average profitable trade? Do you separate stats between original entry and add-ons? If you are only risking $50, what is intraday "mean" drawdown, and "mean" average of losing trades in a row? What is stats on risk of ruin? Do you have defined rules for trend, end of trends When doing contests, less is better, less number of originating signals and limited of add-ons per "wave" or time between imho. I never found reversing signals to be profitable or never was able to get losses below a certain percentage. Have you been trading this method long? Most of my models are automated, couples systems if 1 or 2 losses occur, done for the day in those systems. And when I manually trade, I can't wait for 1-2 losing trades so I can stop for the day, never really liked manual trading, of course when you want the losses, hard to come by sometimes. When you get trading down that road of boredom/profitable, you have lost your emotions and it evolved into your business. Loses becomes more like frustration and not anger unless I did something wrong, faster one gets to be a mindless robot, you have evolved. Looking forward and much luck.
11/2/18 Since the point of this Gauntlet is to control the need to keep trading after a lose I think my friday rule of not trading can be removed. But friday i think an even lower daily loss limit should be applied $150 and limit the hours of trading to the first hour. ES Prior Day Stats V: 1,820,142 OI: 2,771,770(-856) R: 35.75 Daytype: Normal Variation Pre-market action: Bullish I would be looking for a test no lower than 2748 Daily ES is approaching the 200MA(around 2773) i think the environment we will have lots of sellers there a close above would be very good for my Jan 2019 call options offer persistent at 2765 was taken out currently under it may need more fuel to push past .large bid at 2755 Im thinking there will be an early attempt to get this liquidity
OMG, these chart programs get better and better, look at those graphics, this looks like a molecular biology DNA construction tool Seriously, who needs this stuff, how does it help you ? I would not be able to see the forest for the trees with gimmicks like that.
Mean loss on a profitable session is about 150. Ive been trying this strategy of low risk high reward for a year. Risk of ruin is pretty high since it was a 2500 account. I really just jumped into trading live because i believe i could do it there was no real proof other than my options trading and passing a few combines but even then to pass them ive failed a few before.
Then it would be even easier to pass the Gauntlet I wanted to go with something where Im not going to be resetting because of an order than was opened close to the close or a fat finger opened more contracts that that program allowed TST has rules that increase the probablity of you resetting the dumbest one being that if you go over your max contract size you fail( if you have a max contract size this would be your margin available which can be limited on the funders end in a real environment how would this even be possible??). my issue is i dont let the winners run to make the way i was trading profitable as you can see i have about a 25% win rate so i need at least 4:1 or preferably larger to overcome fees and long losing streaks.
11/2/18 Bookmap update price has taken out the liquidity at 2755 and decent push above that area would be an interesting area to watch. To bad this drop didn't happen during the cash open. i dont see any buyers here. maybe a setup for a flip at 2755 though assuming we can get be there
11/2/18 ES Review I didn't take any trades in the Gauntlet today only demo we sold off till 2700 i need to review how often entering a trade premarket would make money.
Week of 11/5-11/9 Economic events Monday, November 5, 2018 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Oct) 54.8 54.8 09:45 USD Services PMI (Oct) 54.7 54.7 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct) 62.4 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 59.3 61.6 Tuesday, November 6, 2018 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Sep) 7.136M 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction 3.225% 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 5.700M Wednesday, November 7, 2018 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.217M 10:30 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.878M Thursday, November 8, 2018 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 214K 214K 12:00 USD WASDE Report 14:00 USD FOMC Statement 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2.25% Friday, November 9, 2018 08:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% 0.2% 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% 0.2% 09:05 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov) 90.0 89.3 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) 98.0 98.6 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 874
ES daily chart 11/5/18 rejected near the 200MA but when testing 2700 area we found buyers 20+ points higher VIX is also dropping VIX above 200MA
11/5/18 ES Prior Trading Day V: 2,372,699 OI: 2,779,529(14,404) Normal Variation overnight Sold off found suport at 2712 near fridays swing low consolidated 2-5 point ranges, broke range to 2723 area small 3 point pullback pushed past 2723 area pushed to 2729 immediate selloff currently at 2724. RTH levels Bookmap view 8:07am Currently im biased short im really looking for a retest of 2700 currently under where buyers lifted "heavy" offers. currently under 2722 is what im watching to enter. Bias is short watching $AAPL for a short via options as well 212-214 Im wrong on my short thesis. Since Vol is high Ill enter using a long put spread with the hopes of turning it into a short put spread if we can get to 190-193. Looking at a time frame of 4 months.