Free money in FX: Turkish Lira

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Genevian Speculator, Mar 25, 2020.

  1. The Turkish Lira is up for another massive tank in the near to midterm future because
    A) the infection curve looks very steep, even steeper then that of Italy.
    B) Turkey is massively dependent on tourism and
    C) could be at war at any moment
    D) is already financially instable, before joblosses hit
    E) to ensure liquidity of their banking system they will have to print EVEN MORE money
    F) their real estate market bubble is on the edge of bursting, as it was already before Corona.
    It's a no brainer to me.
     
  2. TommyR

    TommyR

    this is where you need sales skills it's their thing. no.
     
  3. ????
     
    Nobert likes this.
  4. Nighthawk

    Nighthawk


    1) Turkey generated $31.5 billion from the tourism industry in 2015. The sector's direct contribution to Turkey's GDP was 6.2% in 2015.

    2) Where do you "see" the steeper infection curve?
    Turkey.PNG

    3) At war with whom? Russia and Turkey patrol Idlib now together.
    4) Financially instable? Current account deficit is actually improving
    Turkey.PNG
    5) Real estate market

    Turkey.PNG

    Summary:

    Quite contrary to orthodox monetary theory, Erdogan did instinctively the right thing and forced the central bank to cut interest rates at the expense of the Turkish Lira as foreign investors demanded a higher interest rate risk premium. Especially since December last year when inflation shot over STIR, the Turkish Lira has been sold off. Yet, the cheaper currency acts undoubtedly as a stabilizing factor for Turkey export industry which was booming before corona.

    Otherwise, your arguments above are pretty weak....

    I donĀ“t want to predict TRY movements. Instead, playing it technically with risk/reward defined approach.
     
    dealmaker and Nobert like this.