Thanks Stevegee I know its not fashionable to say so, but I like Linda. I was in her room years ago (more years than I'd like to admit) and she was very generous with her time and comments. Smart lady and a good professional. Best of luck
I've read many of her articles and the "Street Smarts" book. I always felt she was a good explainer and a plain talker. No matter who you say you read or listen to, there's always someone who will say you're an idiot. Just goes with the territory around here.
Yep, she's a good honest person in this business who has passsed along some simple ways to look at the markets. Once you feel comfortable with the first cross, you will see her "anti" trade very clearly (some call it a zero line reject). The "anti" (for me) is simply: 1) only trading in the direction of the 16 line 2) waiting for a pull-back in the 3-10 hist 3) taking the trade when the 3-10 turns back towards the main trend or 16 line The difference. for me. between the first cross and the anti is that on the anti, the 3-10 hist never even gets to the other side of the zero line. I only take the anti's when they are that first pull-back. After the 2nd or 3rd pull-back the move starts to exhaust itself. Then after that 3rd pullback combined with a 3rd divergence in the 3-10 hist, you can add the "3 little indians" and divergence to your arsenal. As you have seen over the past week or so, you can make some money just trading the 1st cross. No need to add additional strategies to your trading, but the 3 above become very obvious as you increase your screen time.
These last two weeks have been very steady and profitable using the First Cross signals as outlined on the OP. I hope many of you have been encouraged that there is a simple way to trade the ES. Obviously two weeks is a small sample, but the idea was to get some who were struggling, moving in the right direction. As with all topics, the questions have dried up. That's a good thing. When you have a simple strategy, questions and answers exhaust themselves very quickly. Good trading to all!
Donkee- if you were to look at other markets to trade this on, what tick setting would you use? Could 1000 work across the board or is that unique to the ES?
I use the 1000 tick chart on the ES at this time. If volume were to slow down, I would probably look at a lower tick reading (ie: 500 ticks). One of my previous posts tried to explain what I want the 3/10/16 oscillator to capture. Visually, here is what I am looking at and what the strategy decscribes with the indicators. 1) First Cross: This is the 16 line alerting me to the trend changing direction. 2) The 3-10 histogram moving to the opposite side of the zero line from the 16 line. This is the 3-10 histogram telling me we are having our first pull-back after the trend change. 3) The 3-10 histogram turning back towards the zero line. This is the 3-10 histogram telling me the pull-back "might" be exhausted and the trend is ready to continue. You might need to adjust your time frames on other markets, so the 3/10/16 will describe the above scenario. You will hear a lot of people argue that by adjusting times frames you are "curve fitting" your indicators to past market behavior. Don't be put off by those people. Every markets' behavior does change. That's the reality. If you don't adjust, you'll get whacked a bit, until you decide you would rather be in sync with the market you are trading than worry about what a bunch of other people are saying. The ES had 5 day ATR in the low teens a few years back. When volatility started to pick up, you had to adjust. Sept-Dec of 2008 5 day ATR was running in the 40's and 50's. The ES has changed again over the past few months. 5 day ATR was in the low 30's in March, now it's running in the low 20's. You just need to get in sync with the way the market is behaving "right now". Remember, your only goal is to "get right the market".